The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE)

v.4 n.43       Released Oct. 23, 2000 
Produced by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation as a public service to the global community.

U.S. HOUSING STARTS STABLE IN SEPTEMBER

     Housing starts edged up to 1.530 million dwelling units in September from 1.525 million in August and 1.527 million in July.  Starts had declined irregularly during the first half of the year before stabilizing in the summer quarter.  (All figures in this paragraph are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)  Single family starts declined by 1.3% to 1.23 million units last month from 1.25 million in August.  However, construction of multiple family homes, which tends to be volatile from month-to-month, rose by 7.6% to 297,000 units after dropping by 15.3% to 276,000 units during August.  Looking at September's performance by region, total housing starts rose by 8.6% in the western U.S. and by 8.1% in the Northeast, while the Midwest and the South registered declines of 2.6% and 4.4% respectively.
     For the first 9 months of 2000, housing starts were off by 3.5% compared to the same period in 1999.  (Figures in this paragraph are actual counts, not seasonally adjusted.)  Single family starts, which have declined by 4.3% year-to-date, accounted for most of this year's dropoff in activity. Multiple family construction was off by only 0.4%.
     Taking a longer view, the surge in home construction that began in early 1998 has completely subsided.  Housing starts hovered just above 1.5 million units (annual rate) during the quarter just ended, well below their winter peak, above 1.8 million units.  With stable fixed mortgage rates, currently below 8%, housing construction activity should maintain its present pace for a while longer.  (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/housing.html
 

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MODERATELY HIGHER IN SEPTEMBER

     Industrial production increased by 0.2% in September following a rise of 0.4% in August and a decline of 0.2% in July.  The nation's capacity utilization rate, showing little change over this period, was 82.2% in both August and September up from 82.1% in July.  Manufacturers of information processing equipment and consumer goods producers posted major gains in September, up by 1.1% and 0.8% respectively.  Miners and transit equipment producers registered monthly declines of 1.0% and 1.1%.
     This report contains detailed information about different industries.  Compared to September 1999, manufacturing production has risen by 6.2%.  Most of this growth has come from spectacular gains in the technology industries.  Specifically, production of computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors has soared by 52.8% over the past 12 months, while other manufacturers' output rose by only 0.9% during the same period.  Several of the "other" industries have increased production moderately, including chemicals, petroleum refining, food products, stone-clay-and-glass, and fabricated metal products.  However, output of transportation equipment dropped by 4.6% year over year, with motor vehicles and parts down by 3.5% and aerospace by 6.4%.  (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G17/Current/
 

BIGGER SOCIAL SECURITY CHECKS COMING THIS JANUARY

     The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in September, thanks largely to a 3.8% spike in energy prices.  Gasoline prices rose 5.4% last month and have risen 20.4% since December.  With the unrest in the Middle East continuing, we should not expect a major reprieve from high gasoline prices any time soon.  The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, the biggest increase since a 0.4% increase in March.  The annualized inflation rate for 3Q00 was 2.8%, slightly higher than 2Q00's 2.6% but less than half of the 6.1% in 1Q00.  The inflation rate for the past 12 months came to 3.5%.  The September CPI index is used to calculate the cost of living adjustments (COLA) for government transfer programs such as Social Security.  Recipients can expect a 3.5% increase in their monthly checks starting in January.
     Locally, the CPI for the Greater L.A. area rose 0.6%, thanks mainly to an 8.0% increase in energy prices.  Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted.  Gasoline prices rose 8.7%.  Food prices declined by 0.4%.  The core CPI rose 0.3%.  Please download the data spreadsheet to get the CPI revision released late last month.  (George Huang)
US PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
LA PR: http://www.bls.gov/special.requests/sanfrancisco/ro9cpila.htm
Data spreadsheet: http://www.laedc.org/CPI-LA5.xls (Excel 97 spreadsheet, data on separate worksheets)
 

AUGUST AIR TRAFFIC CONTINUES STRONG

     Total passenger traffic at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) increased 3.3% in August to nearly 6.4 million.  This was the 3rd month in a row of 6 million + passenger volume at the facility.  International traffic continued its strong trend, with the August passenger count up 9.3% over the year.  The Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Airport moved back into a growth mode in August, with a 1.0% gain over the year.  Ontario International Airport also posted a healthy gain in August, of 4.6%.
     However, John Wayne Orange County Airport saw August traffic ease by 0.2%, and Palm Springs Airport saw its passenger count drop by 6.3% over the year.  This trend continued in September with a 4.1% decline (Palm Springs is quite efficient in reporting activity).
     International air freight activity at LAX also remained on a roll in August, with inbound tonnage up 13.4% over the year and outbound tonnage ahead by 18.9%.  Total international tonnage in August was up 15.5%.  (Jack Kyser)
 

SURPRISES IN SEPTEMBER CONTAINER TRAFFIC

     Container traffic at the local ports was mixed in September.  Los Angeles charged ahead with a 22.0% increase over the year in loaded import containers, and an 18.6% gain in loaded export containers.  The total number of containers handled at the port of Los Angeles (including empties) during the month was up 25.3% to 422,100.
     However, Long Beach posted declines during the month, with loaded import containers down 4.7% and loaded export containers off 1.7%.  The total number of containers handled during September at the port of Long Beach was down 3.8% to 387,593.
     The total number of containers moved at the 2 ports during September was up 9.5% (the first single-digit gain since September 1999) to 809,693 TEUs.  (Jack Kyser)
 

QUICK STATS:

* BLS: US Consumer Price Index for 9/00: +0.5% (8/00: -0.1%)
* BLS: LA Area Consumer Price Index for 9/00: +0.6% (8/00: +0.3%)
* Federal Reserve: US industrial production for 9/00: +0.2% (8/00: +0.4%)
* Federal Reserve: US industrial capacity utilization rate for 9/00: 82.2% (8/00: 82.2%)
* Census: US business sales for 8/00: +0.5% (7/00: -0.6%)
* Census: US business inventories for 8/00: +0.7% (7/00: +0.4%)
* Census: US housing starts for 9/00: +0.3% to 1.530 million annualized units (8/00: -0.1% to 1.525mil.a.u.)
* Census: US exports for 8/00: +3.6% to US$93.0 billion (7/00: -1.3% to $89.8bil.)
* Census: US imports for 8/00: +0.8% to $122.5bil. (7/00: +0.5% to $121.5bil.)
* Census: US trade deficit for 8/00: $29.4bil. (7/00: $31.7bil.)

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