The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE)

v.4 n.47       Released Nov. 20, 2000 
Produced by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation as a public service to the global community.

HOUSING STARTS CONTINUED STABLE IN OCTOBER

     Housing starts edged up to 1.532 million dwelling units in October from 1.530 million units in September and 1.519 million in August.  Starts appear to have stabilized after declining irregularly during the first six months of 2000.  [All figures in this paragraph are seasonally adjusted annual rates.]  Single-family starts were down by only 0.2% to 1.227 million units last month, while construction of multiple family homes rose by 1.3% to 305,000 units.  Looking at October's performance by region, total housing starts rose by 7.6% in the southern U.S. and by 6.7% in the Midwest, while the Northeast and the West registered declines of 3.1% and 15.9% respectively.
     For the first 10 months of 2000, housing starts were off by 3.5% compared to the same period in 1999.  [Figures in this paragraph are actual counts, not seasonally adjusted.]  Single-family starts have declined by 4.7% year-to-date, accounting for all of this year's dropoff in activity. Multiple family construction was up for the year, but only by 0.7%.  With stable fixed mortgage rates, currently below 8%, housing construction activity should maintain its present pace for a while longer.  (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/housing.html
 

RETAIL SALES SLOWED DOWN IN OCTOBER

     U.S. retail sales rose by a mere 0.1% in October following September's increase of 0.9%.  Sales of automotive dealers and gasoline dealers accounted for most of last month's slowdown.  Automotive sales dropped by 1.0% after bouncing up by 1.6% in September.  Gasoline prices were better behaved last month, and so gas stations' sales increased by only 0.9% after surging by 2.3% in September.  Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales rose by 0.3% in October, not far below September's 0.5% increase.  Drug store sales increased by 1.4% last month.  Sales of apparel and accessory stores also were upbeat, rising by 1.0% in October, their third consecutive month at or above the 1% level.  Total retail sales have increased by 8.9% so far this year, with durable goods sales up by 8.0% and nondurables by 9.6%.
     The retail trade report also contains some interesting information on sales by department stores and by mail order.  This data is reported with a one-month lag and is available only through September.  However, mail order sales surged by over 16% during the first 9 months of 2000.  Sales of conventional department stores lagged over the same period, up by only 0.3%, while sales of discount department stores were quite brisk, up by 10.1%.  (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/retail.html
 

WATCH CLOSELY: ENERGY PRICES

     US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October, a welcome deceleration from the 0.5% jump in September.  Energy prices rose just 0.2%, compared to a 3.8% spike in 9/00.  The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose 0.2%, a bit lower than the 0.3% increase in 9/00.  Housing costs rose 0.5%, partly because of a 1.3% increase in fuel oil (+36.8% so far this year) and 5.1% increase in natural gas prices (+31.7% so far this year).  Gasoline prices declined 1.4% last month but have risen 18.7% so far this year.
     LA Area CPI rose 0.3% in October after a 0.6% increase in September.  Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted.  Food prices rose 0.9%.  Gasoline prices rose 0.7% and were 28.8% higher than a year ago.  The cost of natural gas service to homes rose 0.8% and was 40.3% higher than a year ago (there was a 19.6% monthly increase in September).  Retail electricity prices, which are still heavily regulated in most parts of the State, rose just 0.3% and were 0.1% higher than a year ago.  LA consumers are shielded from the high wholesale price of electricity because Southern California Edison's (SCE) retail rates are frozen by state legislation until March 31, 2002.  City of L.A.'s Dept. of Water & Power's (DWP) and many municipal utilities' rates haven't changed much either.
     San Francisco Bay Area saw its CPI rose 0.9% in the past two months.  Gasoline prices dropped 1.9% last month.  Utility natural gas, however, rose 9.9% last month and was 32.6% above the year-ago level.  Electricity prices were unchanged since Pacific Gas & Electric's (PG&E) rates are also frozen by state law.  (George Huang)
US PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
LA PR: http://www.bls.gov/special.requests/sanfrancisco/ro9cpila.htm
Bay Area PR: http://www.bls.gov/special.requests/sanfrancisco/cpisanf.htm
 

REGION'S HOTEL BUSINESS STRONG IN SEPTEMBER

     According to PKF Consulting, Southern California's hotel business turned in a strong performance in September.  In Los Angeles County, the occupancy rate was 78.0%, compared with 72.5% a year ago.  The average daily room rate advanced by 9.2% to $120.87.  Year-to-date, the County's occupancy rate has averaged 77.7%.   During September, 6 areas in the County enjoyed occupancy rates above 80%, including Hollywood (85.5%), LAX (85.3%), Santa Monica (84.9%), South Bay (84.6%), Marina del Rey (84.3%), and downtown "budget" (80.2%).  The latter area was helped by several major business shows.
     Orange County's hotel industry is seeing stronger business, as construction in the Anaheim area finally winds down.  For September, the County's occupancy rate was 75.0% versus 67.6% last year.  The average daily room rate increased by 5.5% to $109.43.  All five areas of the County enjoyed good business, with Orange County Airport the highest, at 75.7% occupancy.  In San Diego County, the September occupancy rate came in at 78.2% compared with 73.9% last year.  The room rate increased by 4.7% to $133.90.  Four areas were over the 80% level: Sports Arena/Old Town (86.8%), Mission Bay (82.3%), Downtown (81.0%), and Mission Valley (80.7%).
     PKF is now reporting on the Ventura County hotel market, where the September occupancy rate was 72.3%, compared with 68.1% last year.  The average daily room rate moved ahead by 13.4% to $79.97.  Far and away the strongest submarket was Camarillo with an 81.6% occupancy.  (Jack Kyser)
 

HEAVY LIFTING AT THE PORTS IN OCTOBER

     The Port of Los Angeles handled a record 481,502 containers in October, as imports continued to flood in and export activity continued its rebound.  The number of loaded import containers increased by 26.3% over the year, while loaded export containers were up 23.5%.  Movement of empty containers, the bane of the shipping industry, increased by 21.6%.  The Port of Long Beach also moved a record number of containers in October, with the number of loaded import containers up over the year by 15.3% and loaded export containers ahead 5.0%.  After a weak September, Long Beach's October recovery was good news.   It moved a total of 432,932 containers during the month.  Together, the two ports handled a whopping 914,434 containers during October. (Jack Kyser)
 

QUICK STATS:

* BLS: US Consumer Price Index for 10/00: +0.20% (9/00: +0.5%)
* BLS: LA Area Consumer Price Index for 10/00: +0.3% (9/00: +0.6%)
* Census: US retail sales for 10/00: +0.1% (9/00: +0.9%)
* Census: US business sales for 9/00: +0.4% (8/00: +0.4%)
* Census: US business inventories for 9/00: +0.1% (8/00: +0.7%)
* Census: US housing starts for 10/00: +0.1% (9/00: +0.7%)
* Fed: US industrial production for 10/00: -0.1% (9/00: +0.4%)
* Fed: US industrial capacity utilization rate for 10/00: 82.1% (9/00: 82.5%)

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