The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE)

v.5 n.15       Released Apr. 9, 2001
Produced by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation as a public service to the global community.

LABOR MARKETS WEAKER IN MARCH

     The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released its Employment Situation report for March, and the news was not very good.  As expected, the nation's unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2% in February and January and from 4.0% in December.  Unemployment rates for all of the important subgroups have risen markedly since December.  Joblessness was up by 0.4% points to 3.8% for adult men, by 0.2% points to 3.6% for adult women, and by 0.2% points to 13.8% for teenagers.  The March unemployment rates for black and Hispanic workers were 8.6% and 6.3% respectively, compared to 7.6% and 5.7% in December.
     Meanwhile, the "education differential" widened: unemployment rates for workers with at least some college education have not changed at all since December, while joblessness among those who did not earn a high school diploma increased from 6.3% to 6.9% and from 3.4% to 3.8% among high school graduates.  In other signs of deterioration, the median time spent unemployed rose to 6.5 weeks in March from 6.1 weeks in December, while the share of "job losers" increased from 44.7% of the unemployed in December to 48.8% in March.  Permanent layoffs accounted for all of this increase; their share jumped from 28.0% of the unemployed in December to 32.5% in March.
     In more bad news, the BLS employer survey for March revealed an unexpected decline of 86,000 nonfarm jobs during March, compared to revised increases of 140,000 workers in February and 290,000 workers in January.  Manufacturing employment dropped by 81,000 workers in March, the 8th consecutive monthly decline.  Industrial firms have let go some 270,000 workers since December and 506,000 over the past 8 months.  Employment in every manufacturing industry except Aircraft turned down last month.  Indeed, only two industries, Electronic Parts and Instruments, had more workers in March 2001 than in March 2000.  The ranks of temporary workers, many of whom were placed in manufacturing plants, also have thinned substantially, declining by 83,000 positions in March alone.  The other major negative in this part of the report was retail employment, which fell by 46,000 workers after increasing in February.
     Was there any good news?  A little.  Some sectors have hired new workers.  Despite dot.com woes, employment rose in the Computer & Data Processing industry.  Health services payrolls also increased.  Employment in the financial sector grew because mortgage banks needed to hire people to process a flood of mortgage applications due to the current "refi" boom.  Finally, construction payrolls have grown modestly, due primarily to increased work on the nation's highways and other public works projects.  (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
 

NEW HOUSING PERMITS EASE IN FEBRUARY

     According to the Construction Industry Research Board, 9,160 new housing unit permits were issued in California in February, down 4.7% over the year.  The February count was also down sharply from the January number, which were inflated by the rush to beat increased permit fees in several counties.  The multi-family sector took the biggest hit both over the month and year.  However, single family permits were up 15.5% over February 2000.
     In Los Angeles County (where there was one of those fee increases), permits declined both over the month and year.  However, the County's 2-month permit total is still a hearty 94.9% ahead of the like 2000 total.  Orange County also saw housing permits decline over both the month and year, but the 2-month total running 51.6% behind the 2000 number.  It was the same story in Ventura County, with the 2-month total down 38.2%.  In the Riverside-San Bernardino area, the February permit total was down modestly from January, but was ahead of last year's comparable month.  The 2-month total was up 18.0% over last year.  San Diego County exhibited the same pattern, and its 2-month total was up 43.8% over last year.
     In the Bay Area, the housing picture was also mixed.  In the Oakland area, the number of permits issued in February was down over both the month and year, with the 2-month total 9.0% below last year.  The San Francisco area saw a decline from January to February, but a modest increase over the year.  For two months, its permit count was up by 10.3%.  San Jose was the most interesting case.  Its permit total was up both over the month and year, but still trailed the 2000 permit count, by 23.9%.  (Jack Kyser)
 

NONRESIDENTIAL PERMITS A MIXED BAG IN FEBRUARY

     There were also divergent trends in the February nonresidential permit data reported by the Construction Industry Research Board.  In Los Angeles County, the 2-month total for industrial building permits was up 32.1%, while the change for office permits could not be calculated since the 2001 number is so much larger than last year.  But wonder of wonders, retail permits trailed 2000 by 7.7%.  In Orange County, industrial permits were up a stunning 296.2%, but office and retail permit values were down, by 47.9% and 25.8% respectively.
     The news for the Riverside-San Bernardino area was quite dramatic.  The 2-month industrial permit total was down 40.4% from the like 2000 period.  Office permit values also were off over the year, by 24.8%.  And more wonders, retail permits dropped by 46.8%.  In San Diego County, industrial permits were off 45.8% while retail permit values slipped by 75.8%.  However, office permits advanced 15.5%.  Ventura County is a comparative nonresidential hot bed, with the 2-month industrial permit value up 78.2%, while retail has jumped 314.1%.  Like L.A., the office activity so far this year is too large to compute a meaningful percent change.
     Given the concern expressed over the economic situation in the Bay Area, the 2-month permit totals are disquieting.  Industrial permit values were up by 82.6% (thanks to a big gain in Santa Clara County), office was ahead 303.2% (with big jumps in San Francisco and San Mateo counties), while new retail was ahead 87.2%.  (Jack Kyser)
 

TRADE VALUES MIXED IN JANUARY

     The Department of Commerce report on value of imports and exports in January through the state's 3 customs districts was mixed.  At the Los Angeles District, export values were ahead 24.0%, while imports posted a more modest 14.4% gain.  The month's total was up over the year by 17.6%.  At the San Francisco District, export values were up 21.3%, while imports increased by 10.8%. January's total was 15.5% ahead of last year.  San Diego posted rather restrained gains, with export values in January up a modest 10.1%, while imports managed only an 8.8% gain.  Its monthly total was up 9.3%.  (Jack Kyser)
 

SOUR AIRPORT ACTIVITY IN FEBRUARY

     The February numbers from Southern California's airports did not make good reading.  At Los Angeles International, total traffic was down 4.0% over the year, with international activity off by 1.2% (you have to go back to September 1998, the depth of the Asian crisis slowdown, to find the last year-over-year decline).  The Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Airport posted a 0.9% decline in activity, but John Wayne Orange County Airport clocked in with a stout 8.2% decline over the year.  Equally hefty was the 10.6% decline at the Palm Springs Airport, a continuation of a trend in evidence since June 2000.
     International air cargo tonnage at LAX also continued to slide in February.  Import tonnage was down by 9.1%, while exports were off 17.0%.  For the month, international air cargo tonnage was down 12.7% over February 2000.  (Jack Kyser)
 

LOCATION FILMING FRANTIC IN MARCH

     According to the Entertainment Industry Development Corporation, off-lot filming activity in March was up 12.1% over the year.  For the year-to-date, production days are running 17.2% ahead of the like 2000 period.  Providing the spark is feature film production, with a 60.5% gain over the year in March, and a 3-month increase of 45.0%.  All this activity reflects the rush to stockpile films in anticipation of a mid-year strike.  Friday 3/30/01 was generally considered the last day to start a film if you wanted to get it done before contract expirations.  TV production days were also up by 14.8%, due to the same strike concerns.  There are no formal discussions between the studios and the Writers Guild.  So Hollywood is still holding its collective breath.  (Jack Kyser)
 

WOMEN-OWNED BUSINESS REPORT

     The Census Bureau released its report of women-owned business enterprises (part of the 1997 Economic Census).  There were 5.4 million women-owned businesses in the U.S. in 1997.  They employed 7.1 million workers and generated $818.7 billion in receipts.  Most women-owned businesses are family-run (with no reported employees) or single-person operations.  Most are sole proprietorships.  Among the states, California topped the list with 700,500 firms, followed by New York at 394,000 and Texas at 381,500.  Women-owned businesses represent 27.2% of all firms in California.  Locally, LA County came in second in the nation with 200,793 women-owned businesses (New York PMSA was no. 1 at 201,016 and Chicago PMSA was third at 161,252).  L.A.'s 200,793 firms generated $32.3 billion in sales.  Only 27,393 had paid employees, but they employed a total of 242,583 workers.  Firms with employees were roughly 13.6% of the total, but accounted for 81.6% of the sales.  Roughly 61.2% of the women-owned businesses in LA County are in services.  The cities in LA County with the largest numbers of women-owned businesses were: Los Angeles (89,619), Long Beach (7,193), and Santa Monica (6,542).  (George Huang)
PR: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2001/cb01-61.html
 

QUICK STATS:

* BLS: US unemployment rate for 3/01: 4.3% (2/01: 4.2%)
* BLS: US nonfarm employment for 3/01: -86,000 (2/01: +140,000)
* Census: US wholesale trade for 2/01: -0.2% (1/01: +0.1%)
* Census: US wholesale inventories for 2/01: -0.1% (1/01: -0.4%)
* Federal Reserve: US consumer credit for 2/01: +10.5% annual rate (1/01: +12.5% a.r.)

The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE) is a free service of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC). Permission to quote any proprietary part of this release is granted given proper credit. Distribution is allowed provided that no modifications are made to the original content. Sponsors of this service do not necessarily endorse all opinions stated herein. For more information, please e-mail to research@laedc.org. To contact LAEDC, please call 213-622-4300.

Subscribe to e-EDGE and receive current economic news and major developments.  Your e-mail address will not be disclosed to any outside party (including e-EDGE sponsors) under any circumstances.

To send us comments regarding e-EDGE, please e-mail to research@laedc.org.