The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE)

v.6 n.19       Released May 13, 2002
Produced by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation as a public service to the global community.

STATE/LOCAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN APRIL

     California's unemployment rate edged down to 6.4% last month compared to a revised 6.5% in March and 6.2% in February.   The state's jobless rate was 5.0% in April 2001.  This lackluster performance over the past 12 months was a tad better than the nation as a whole.  The U.S. unemployment rate has increased from 4.5% to 6.0% over the past 12 months.  (These figures are all adjusted to eliminate normal seasonal variation.)
     Jobless rates at the county level are not seasonally adjusted.  Typically, employment rises and unemployment rates fall in April.  Most of the Southern California county unemployment rates followed this pattern last month.  Los Angeles County's jobless rate was 6.5%, down from 6.7% in March.  Orange and Riverside counties' rates both fell by 0.1 percentage point, the former to 3.7% and the latter to 5.2%.  San Bernardino County joblessness was 5.2% last month, even with March, while Ventura County's unemployment rate fell from 4.7% in March to 4.4% last month.  Compared to April 2001, last month's unemployment rates were noticeably higher in Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura counties, up by 1.4, 1.2, and 1.1 percentage points respectively.  Riverside and San Bernardino counties both registered a smaller year-to-year increase of 0.7 percentage points.  San Diego's unemployment rate was 3.8% in April, down by 0.1 percentage points from March but 1.0 percentage point higher than last year.
     The Southern California (5-county) jobless rate has worsened noticeably over the past 12 months, rising by 1.2 percentage points to 5.6% last month.  However, labor markets in the Bay Area are even more unpleasant.  The combined 9-county unemployment rate was 5.8% last month, 2.9 percentage points above the April 2001 level of 2.9%.  San Jose has experienced the worst of the area's problems.  Last month's jobless rate was 7.4%, lowest so far this year but still almost three times the April 2001 rate of 2.7%.  San Francisco and Alameda counties also registered big increases.  Their unemployment rates were up by 2.5 and 2.9 percentage points respectively over the past year to 6.6% and 6.2%.
     Unemployment continued high in most of the Central Valley during April. Compared to last year, however, the Central Valley's unemployment picture was somewhat mixed.  The jobless rate in Sacramento County was 4.9% last month, up from 3.7% in April 2001.  Nearby, San Joaquin County's unemployment rate increased by 1.4 percentage points, to 10.0%.  Joblessness in Fresno, Tulare, and Kern counties continued high, at 15.0%, 15.7%, and 12.1% respectively.  Imperial County's jobless rate has dropped by 3.0 percentage points over the past 12 months, but it was highest in the state at 16.9%.  (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/nwsrel05.htm
Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal1$pr.txt
 

APRIL JOBS REPORT -- A LITTLE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL?

     The April report on nonfarm employment indicated that the worst of the employment slide may be over.  While there is no upward movement, at least the situation seems to have stabilized.  The state lost 28,200 jobs over the year, an improvement from the March decline of 64,800.  The manufacturing sector lost 98,300 jobs from April to April, while services dropped by 14,800.  In manufacturing, aerospace/high-technology continued to decline, with a loss of 46,400 jobs.  Adding jobs during April were government (+78,100), retail trade (+35,000), and finance/insurance/real estate (+9,200).
     Around Southern California, the Riverside-San Bernardino area continued to set the pace, with a year-to-year gain of 31,700.  However, the area's rate of growth continued to ease.  A piece of good news; the area's manufacturing sector seems to be stabilizing.  Also rolling along in April was San Diego County, with an increase of 24,500 nonfarm jobs.  However, the County's manufacturing sector continued to shed workers, off by 2,400 jobs over the year.  Orange County recorded a modest increase in April, up by 11,500 jobs.  This came despite a 7,500 dip in manufacturing employment.  Ventura County was job positive in April, but just barely.  Nonfarm employment inched ahead by 700 jobs, but the County's manufacturing sector also seems to be stabilizing.
     Los Angeles County's employment loss eased in April, down over the year by 29,200 jobs.  The March slippage was 35,400.  Manufacturing dropped 20,400 jobs during the month, of which 5,900 were in aerospace/high-technology.  Services were down by 18,300 jobs, with motion picture production off by 19,300 and business services down by 16,600 jobs.  While off-lot production days are moving up, the job-rich feature film sector is lagging (see story below).
     In the Bay Area, the April jobs report brought a little relief.  The San Jose area was down over the year by 64,000 jobs, an improvement over the 3 previous months.  Nonfarm employment in the San Francisco area declined by 35,800 jobs, an improvement over the March loss of 46,200.  The Oakland area declined by 7,100 jobs, again an improvement over the March loss of 12,500.  (Jack Kyser)
Cal. Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$pr.txt
LA County Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$pr.txt
 

PRODUCER PRICES DECLINED IN APRIL

     The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods declined by 0.2% in April, thanks to a 3.2% drop in food prices.  Vegetable prices dropped by a record 46.5%.  However, energy costs rose by 2.5%, following a 5.5% jump in March.  Gasoline prices increased by 4.2% last month, compared to the 21.3% jump in March.  The core PPI rose by just 0.1%.  Compared to a year ago, the PPI for finished goods declined by 2.0%.
     The PPI for intermediate goods increased by 0.9% last month, following a 1.0% rise in March.  Food prices fell by 0.7%.  Energy prices increased by 4.4% last month, following a 5.2% rise in March.  Excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI rose by just 0.2%.  Compared to a year ago, the PPI for intermediate goods declined by 2.4%.
     The PPI for crude goods increased by 5.5% last month, following a 4.0% rise in March.  Food prices fell by 6.4%.  Energy prices jumped by 22.4% last month, following a 15.2% increase in March.  Excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI fell by 0.7%.  Compared to a year ago, the PPI for crude goods declined by 18.9%.
     The lack of inflationary pressure is good news for the economy and leaves more room for the Fed to conduct monetary policies to help boost the economy.  (George Huang)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
 

APRIL OFF-LOT FILM PRODUCTION ACTIVITY STILL LACKLUSTER

     The April off-lot film production days data from the Entertainment Industry Development Corporation continued to point to a slow recovery in the entertainment industry.  The year-to-year decline was 10.5%, the narrowest this far in 2002.  The April total of 2,622 production days was essentially unchanged from the March count of 2,634, and both represent the highest level of activity since April 2001.
     The weak link in April was feature film production, down by 47.5% over the year to only 694 days.  The recovery is this sector is slow.  All other categories were up, with TV setting the pace with a 22.9% gain.  Commercial location days were up by 16.1%, while music was ahead by 8.5%.
     On another front, domestic film box office is burning up the track, with the year-to-date total ahead of 2001 by a stunning 17.1%.  This includes the Spidey debut, but the parade of big films is just starting.  (Jack Kyser)
 

HOTEL OCCUPANCIES IMPROVE IN MARCH

     According to PKF Consulting, the local travel industry continued to make a slow recovery in March.  The occupancy rate in Los Angeles County was 68.9%, the highest since August 2001.  However, this is still below the March 2001 occupancy of 77.5%.  The average daily room rate (ADR) in the County was also down over the year in March, by 4.7% to $120.52.  The hotel market in Valencia continues to amaze.  In March the occupancy rate was 91.6%, and the ADR was up over the year by 2.3%.   The next strongest market in the County was Pasadena at 78.4% occupancy.
     The hotel recovery was also evident in Orange County in March.  The 71.1% occupancy rate, while down from last March's 78.1%, was again the strongest rate since August 2001.  The ADR declined over the year by 7.3% to $116.65.  A similar trend was evident in San Diego County.  The March occupancy rate of 77.0%, while below last year's 80.4%, was the strongest level since August 2001.  But the ADR slipped by 10.0% to $128.65.  (Jack Kyser)
 

AND THEY JUST KEEP COMING -- 2002 POPULATION DATA

     The California Department of Finance just released their city and county population estimates for January 2002, and they just keep coming!  The 2001 increase for the state was 652,000, with natural increase and net migration both making their usual contributions.
     Five Southern California counties set the pace for numerical population gains.  In first place was Los Angeles, up by 170,900 persons to a January 1, 2002 count of 9,824,800.  In second place was Riverside County, up by 60,700 to 1,644,300.  Third was Orange County, up by 59,300 to 2,939,500.  In the fourth spot was San Diego County, up by 58,400 persons to 2,918,300.  Rounding out the top five was San Bernardino County, up by 42,600 to a January 1, 2002 count of 1,783,700.
     The largest city in Southern California, fissiparous Los Angeles added 64,000 residents in 2001, pushing its January 1, 2002 total to 3,807,400.  Number 2 San Diego added 15,500 residents, moving to a January total of 1,255,700.  The state's fifth largest city, Long Beach, added 6,200 residents, moving to a population total of 473,100.  (Jack Kyser)
PR & data: http://www.dof.ca.gov/HTML/DEMOGRAP/e-1text.htm
 

QUICK STATS:

* BLS: US nonfarm labor productivity for 1Q02: +8.6% (4Q01: +5.5%)
* BLS: US nonfarm unit labor costs for 1Q02: -5.4% (4Q01: -3.1%)
* BLS: US export prices for 4/02: +0.4% (3/02: +0.3%)
* BLS: US import prices for 4/02: +1.4% (3/02: +1.2%)
* BLS: US Producer Price Index for finished goods for 4/02: -0.2% (3/02 +1.0%)
* BLS: US Producer Price Index for intermediate goods for 4/02: +0.9% (3/02 +1.0%)
* BLS: US Producer Price Index for crude goods for 4/02: +5.5% (3/02 +4.0%)
* Cal. Assn of Realtors: California Housing Affordability Index for 3/02: 29% (2/02: 30%)
* Cal. Assn of Realtors: LA County Housing Affordability Index for 3/02: 33% (2/02: 33%)
* Cal. EDD: California unemployment rate for 4/02: 6.4% (3/02: 6.5%)
* Cal. EDD: California nonfarm employment for 4/02: +89,700 (3/02: +90,200)
* Cal. EDD: LA County unemployment rate for 4/02: 6.8% (3/02: 6.9%)
* Cal. EDD: LA County nonfarm employment for 4/02: -1,900 (3/02: +26,000)
* Census: US wholesale trade for 3/02: -0.1% (2/02: +0.8%)
* Census: US wholesale inventories for 3/02: -0.0% (2/02: -0.9%)
* Federal Reserve: US consumer credit for 3/02: +3.3% (2/02: +5.1%)

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