The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE)

v.6 n.27       Released July 8, 2002

Produced by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation as a public service to the global community.

U.S. LABOR MARKETS LITTLE CHANGED IN JUNE

     The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly labor market report Friday showing that labor market conditions changed little in June compared to May.  The headline figure was the rise in the nation's unemployment rate to 5.9% from 5.8% in May and 6.0% in April.  Jobless rates rose for all categories of workers except women.  Teenagers registered the biggest increases (rising by 0.7 percentage points to 17.6%), followed by blacks (up by 0.5 percentage points to 10.7%) and Hispanics  (up by 0.4 percentage points to 7.4%).  Last month's unemployment increase was expected and emphasizes that little change took place in the nation's joblessness during the April-June quarter.
     The Bureau's survey of employers showed that job counts in the U.S. barely budged in June.  Nonfarm employment grew by only 36,000 jobs, following a revised increase of 24,000 jobs in May and a revised decline of 21,000 jobs in April.  Though employment is still at a low level, May and June mark the first two-month period of consecutive upticks since February-March 2001, just prior to the start of last year's recession.  Also, nonfarm employment appears to have stabilized over the last four months, a distinct improvement over previous periods.  Some 1.75 million jobs disappeared between March 2001 and February 2002.  Looking at individual industries, June's job losses were concentrated in manufacturing, down by 23,000 jobs, and retail and wholesale trade, down by 18,000 and 1,000 jobs respectively.   Manufacturing payrolls have fallen for 23 consecutive months now.  On the upside, health services industries gained 34,000 new jobs, while government payrolls increased by 23,000 positions and construction contractors added another 14,000 workers.
     Private industry payrolls last month were about 1.7 million below June 2001, a decline of 1.5% over the year.  Three sectors were responsible for the lion's share--over 88%--of these job losses.  Manufacturing payrolls fell by 1 million workers, or 5.6%, while help supply services let go another 192,000 workers, for a drop of 6.2%.  In addition, the travel and tourism related industries lost a total of 298,000 jobs over the past year, for a decline of 6.1%.  Manufacturing payrolls continued to decline in June, but the number of employees in the travel and tourism industries has grown a little since April, and the number of temporary workers--many of whom work in factories--has increased for the past four months.  These are small signs of progress but welcome nonetheless.  Labor markets will continue to recover in upcoming months, but progress is likely to be slow.   (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
 

MAY HOMEBUILDING MIXED

     The May data from the Construction Industry Research Board indicated little change in recent trends.  The number of permits issued in the state during the month was up slightly over the year, but the 5-month total was 0.4% below the comparable 2001 period.  Permits for single-family units were up by 2.7%, while the multi-family total was behind last year by 9.2%.
     Around Southern California, the Riverside-San Bernardino area continued to set the pace.  Its May permit total was up over the year, and the 5-month total was ahead by 17.1% to 12,778 units, with gains in both singles and multiples.  This keeps the area solidly in first place in homebuilding in the state.  New homebuilding activity in Orange County also continued strong in May.  The month's total was ahead of last year, while the 5-month count was up 29.2% to 4,617 units.  Again, there were gains in both types of housing.
     The remaining areas in Southern California continued to lag in May.  The 5-month housing unit total for Los Angeles County was down 30.9% from the comparable 2001 period, San Diego County was down by 5.7%, and Ventura County was off by 40.3%.
     In Northern California, the Oakland area's 5-month total was ahead of last year by 1.7%, but the San Francisco area was down by 44.2%, and San Jose was off by 26.7%.  The Sacramento area, however, is turning in a strong performance.  Its 5-month total was ahead of last year by 21.1%, with the unit count of 8,375 the second highest in the state.  (Jack Kyser)
 

A SHIFT OR TWO IN NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN MAY

     There were some interesting shifts in the May nonresidential construction data reported by the Construction Industry Research Board.  In Los Angeles County, industrial permit values moved into the plus column in May, with the 5-month total 8.6% ahead of last year.  Retail permit values were ahead by 25.6%, but office activity continued to lag, down by 87.5%.  In Orange County, the 5-month permit totals were still behind last year for industrial (-67.6%), retail (-28.0%), and office (-3.9%).  However, the year-to-year decline for the latter is narrowing.  (There was a $9.3 million store building in Buena Park -- could be a Kohl's.)
     In the Riverside-San Bernardino area, the 5-month totals remained behind last year; industrial -10.5%, office -21.0%, and retail -27.3%.  The same pattern was evident in San Diego County; industrial -17.2%, office -17.3%, and retail -0.1% (this sector had been positive in recent months).  In Ventura County, industrial and office continued to lag, -37.5% and 96.0% respectively.  But retail remained strong, with the 5-month permit value ahead by 78.3%.
     In the 9 county Bay Area, all three major nonresidential sectors continued to lag at the 5 month mark.  Industrial was down by 68.0%, office was behind by 70.2%, and retail was down by 20.6%.  (Jack Kyser)
 

RETAIL SALES LOWER IN FIRST QUARTER

     According to (very) preliminary retail sales data provided by The HdL Companies, California retail sales during the first quarter of 2002 were 3.7% below the 1Q2001 level.  Los Angeles County saw a 2.6% decline, while Orange County's figures were 3.4% lower.  Riverside County experienced a 6.5% increase, the highest in the Southern California region.  San Bernardino followed with a 2.5% growth.  Ventura County's 1.9% increase was also notable.  Up north, the Bay Area saw a 12.7% decline in retail sales activity.  What's causing the decline in retail sales?  Besides a weaker economy, there has been a sharp decline in gasoline costs.  These preliminary data may change significantly when the final data is released by the California Board of Equalization, but the "direction" indicated here will likely hold.  (George Huang)
 

ENERGY WATCHING

     Curious about today's power situation?  Cal ISO has a real-time monitor at http://www.caiso.com/outlook.html and Lawrence Berkeley Labs' monitor is at http://energycrisis.lbl.gov/ .
 

MANUFACTURING REPORT RELEASED

     LAEDC released the 2002 "Manufacturing in Los Angeles" report last week.  It covers the various indicators of manufacturing sector in the Los Angeles five-county area, including employment, firms, and real estate.  There are also two special sectoral analysis on apparel/textiles and aerospace/hi-tech.  The price is $30 and you may order by calling 213-236-4822, filling out and printing the on-line order form at http://www.laedc.org/order_form.pdf, or buying on-line at http://www.laedc.org/economic_research/publications.shtml .
 

WHEN IT RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, IT... THE REGION'S "OTHER" WATER PROBLEM (Repeat announcement)

     The way the water quality laws work these days, California cities are responsible for improving the water quality of the region's rivers, streams, and the ocean water quality by reducing the amount of polluted storm water that runs off our streets, parking lots, etc. into the storm sewers.  The cities' tasks are described in the form of five-year municipal storm water National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits, which are issued by nine regional water quality boards. The latest version of these permits have recently been issued, or are in the process of being issued, for all cities in Southern California as well as the rest of the state.
     The new permits set very strict standards, which will require cities to increase their storm water related activity.  Even more difficult, citizens will need to make some major changes in their own behavior.  If everything goes as planned, we will see reduced amounts of trash and pollutants going into the storm sewers and will experience fewer beach closures after it rains.  However, implementing the new standards will be an expensive proposition for many cities, most of which are only now putting their storm water plans on paper.
     To meet the challenges presented by these permits, LAEDC has joined with a "blue ribbon" team of experts in government, water treatment, environmental issues, and related fields, to develop the BEACON Program(tm) (Balancing Economic And Clean Ocean Needs).  By working together in the Program, member cities can save money on their storm water runoff plans, obtain discounts by pooling their storm water related purchases, enjoy greater influence with regulators, and free up city staff time and money for other pressing needs. Cities, Counties and special purpose jurisdictions can contact Wally Baker at 213.236.4812 for further information on the BEACON Program(tm).  (Martin Webley & Nancy D. Sidhu)
 

2000 CENSUS DATA NOW AVAILABLE -- FOR FREE! (Repeat announcement)

     LAEDC has compiled the 2000 Census data and turned them into two books for easy comparison across the different cities and communities in Southern California.  One book covers the whole five-county area (Los Angeles CMSA, 142 pages) and the second covers only LA County (74 pages).  These books are available free of charge.  You may see the list of download servers from  http://www.laedc.org/census2000.html
     We would like to thank Holland & Knight LLP, Larta, and Los Angeles Public Library (City of LA) for their generous support through the hosting of these files.
     There are no restrictions on redistribution of these books except that they must not be sold or be given in exchange for any type of compensation.  Because of the anticipated large volume of downloading, the downloading process may be slow.  If at first you don't succeed due to server overload, you can try again a few days later.
* * * College teachers, government agencies, and non-profit organizations: the 2000 Census data is a valuable tool in research or quantitative analyses.  If you want the data in formats that are easier for analysis, please fax your request to 213-622-7100 on your organization's official letterhead, attn. George.  Businesses and other private parties can purchase the data CD for US$50.  CDs with only the Excel format is available for just $25.
 

A FOOTNOTE ON THE CENSUS DATA (Repeat announcement)

     In Table 1, "Hispanics" are not considered as a racial group by the Census Bureau.  To get the right population count, please do not add the Hispanics column when you add up all the other columns.  We will avoid this confusion by changing the "Hispanics" column from actual numbers to percentage of total sometime this week.
 

TRADE SHOWS LISTINGS (Repeat announcement)

     LAEDC is now compiling a comprehensive listing of trade shows in Southern California.  Please send us such information.  Thank you so much.
     Our current listing includes fashion/apparel, textiles, shoes, home furnishings & giftware, and manufacturing.  It's available at http://www.laedc.org/trade_shows.html
 

QUICK STATS:

* BLS: US unemployment rate for 6/02: 5.9% (5/02: 5.8%)
* BLS: US nonfarm employment for 6/02: +36,000 (5/02: +24,000)
* BEA: US vehicle sales for 6/02: +5.1% to 16.5 million annual units (5/02: -9.8% to 15.7mil.a.u.)
* Census: US new factory orders for 5/02: +0.7% (4/02: +0.7%)
* Census: US factory shipments for 5/02: +0.2% (4/02: +2.3%)
* Census: US factory inventories for 5/02: -0.4% (4/02: -0.3%)
* Census: US unfilled factory orders for 5/02: -0.5% (4/02: -0.8%)

The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE) is a free service of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC). Permission to quote any proprietary part of this release is granted given proper credit. Distribution is allowed provided that no modifications are made to the original content. Sponsors of this service do not necessarily endorse all opinions stated herein. For more information, please e-mail to research@laedc.org. To contact LAEDC, please call 213-622-4300.

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