The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE)

v.6 n.37       Released Sep. 16, 2002
Produced by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation as a public service to the global community.

STATE/LOCAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES MOSTLY DOWN IN AUGUST

     California's unemployment rate was 6.2% last month, down a bit from 6.4% in July and from this year's peak of 6.5% reached in June, April and March.   The state's jobless rate was 5.5% in August 2001.  Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 12 months, from 4.9% to 5.7%.  (These figures are all adjusted to eliminate normal seasonal variation.)
     Jobless rates at the county level are not seasonally adjusted.  Typically, employment rises a little in the month of August, while the amount of unemployment falls a good deal.  Southern California county unemployment rates followed the usual pattern last month with one exception.  The exception was Ventura County whose rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 5.7%.  Los Angeles County's jobless rate was 6.8%, well down from July's 7.5%.  Orange County's jobless rates fell by 0.2 percentage points to 4.0%.  Riverside County's rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 6.5%, while joblessness in San Bernardino dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 5.5%.  Compared to August 2001, last month's jobless rates were all higher:  by 0.6 percentage points in Los Angeles County, by 0.7 percentage points in Orange County, by 0.5 percentage points in both Riverside and San Bernardino counties, and by 0.4 percentage points in Ventura County.  San Diego's unemployment rate was 4.1% last month, down from 4.4% in July and 0.6 percentage points higher than last year.
     The Southern California (5-county) jobless rate has increased by 0.6 percentage points over the past 12 months to 6.1%.  This was below last month's cyclical high of 6.6%.  In the Bay Area, the combined 9-county unemployment rate was 6.0%, down from 6.3% in July, which appears to be that area's cyclical high. This rate was 1.2 percentage points above the August 2001 level of 4.8%, though the year-to-year margin has been dropping for several months.  San Jose has experienced the worst of the area's problems.  Last month's jobless rate was 7.6%, much higher than the August 2001 rate of 5.8%, though below the June-July peak of 7.8%.  San Francisco and Alameda counties also had high jobless rates, the former at 6.8% and the latter at 6.3%.
     Unemployment rates continued high in most of the Central Valley. Compared to last year, however, the Central Valley's unemployment record was mixed.  The jobless rate in Sacramento County was 5.2% last month, up from 4.2% in August 2001.  Joblessness in Kern County increased by 0.8 percentage points to 9.2%.  Tulare and Fresno counties continued high too, at 12.6% and 11.1% respectively.  However, Fresno's rate was up by 0.5 percentage points over the year while unemployment declined by 0.4 percentage points in Tulare County.  Finally, Imperial County's jobless rate has dropped by 3.3 percentage points over the past 12 months, though it remained highest in the state in June, at 21.8%.   (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/nwsrel09.htm
Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal1$pr.txt
 

AUGUST JOBS NUMBERS SO-SO

     The nonfarm employment data for August released by the California Employment Development Department on the surface pointed to an economy that was going nowhere.  But a few encouraging signs appeared if you sifted through the numbers.
     Nonfarm employment in the state increased from July to August, but was still 65,400 jobs below last year.  The weak link was once again manufacturing, which was down by 76,100 jobs over the year.  However, there continued to be a moderation in the year-to-year job loss.  "Aerospace" was off by 38,900 jobs.  Transportation, communications & public utilities declined by 32,000 jobs, while "services" dropped by 16,900.  The business services component was off by 45,600 jobs.  The state posted year over year job gains in wholesale and retail trade, and in that old reliable government.
     Around Southern California, nonfarm employment in Los Angeles County held steady from July to August.  However, the latter's total was 28,400 jobs below last year.  The main culprit was again manufacturing, which dropped by 20,300 jobs, of which 8,100 were in aerospace.  Services were off by 9,600 jobs, the smallest loss so far this year.   Motion picture production increased by 2,300 jobs from July to August, and was down over the year by 9,500.  This industry is slowly climbing out of the "de facto" strike hole.
     Orange County lost jobs from July to August, and the latter month was below last year's total by 1,500, the first negative reading in this cycle.  Manufacturing was down by 4,900 jobs, and the County's retail sector also lost jobs over the year (-900).  The biggest job gain came in government, up by 3,600.  The Riverside-San Bernardino area also lost jobs from July to August, but its nonfarm employment total was still ahead of last year, by 26,000 jobs.  The largest increase was found in government, up by 9,300 jobs, followed by services with an increase of 7,700 jobs, and construction, up over the year by 4,400 jobs.  Of note was the recovery in manufacturing, which has now recorded year-to-year job gains for 3 months in a row (they are, however, teeny).
     San Diego County's nonfarm employment declined modestly from July to August, but was ahead of last year by 20,300 jobs.  The biggest increases were in services and retail trade.  After losing jobs over the year in July, Ventura County bounced back in August with an increase of 2,000.  Its manufacturing and service components lost jobs.  Most of the month's punch came in government with an increase of 2,800 jobs.
     The employment news in the Bay Area in August remained grim.  The Oakland metro area was down by 5,400 jobs over the year, while the San Francisco area dropped by 33,800, and the San Jose area declined by 41,700 jobs.  (Jack Kyser)
CA data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$pr.txt
LA data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$pr.txt
 

ENERGY COSTS ROSE IN AUGUST

     U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods, also known as the wholesale price index, was unchanged in August after falling by 0.2% in July.  Compared to a year ago, the PPI was lower by 1.6%.  Food prices dropped by 0.4%.  Energy prices rose by 1.0%, the largest increase since spring.  Gasoline prices increased by 3.7% last month, following a 2.2% increase in July and 1.0% increase in June.  But so far this month (September) gas prices seem to have stabilized or even declined a little.  Excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI declined by 0.1% in August, following a 0.3% drop in July.
     The Producer Price Index (PPI) for intermediate goods was 0.4% higher in August, following two months of 0.2% increases.  Compared to a year ago, however, the August PPI was lower by 0.9%.  The indexes for food and energy prices both rose by 0.6%, and the core PPI was higher by 0.4%.  Energy costs are putting pressure on businesses, and may trickle down to consumer product prices.  Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was 4.5% higher, commercial natural gas was 0.8% higher, and natural gas for power plants was 4.8% higher.  Jet fuel prices dropped by 1.4%, reflecting weak air travel.
     The Producer Price Index (PPI) for crude goods was 1.6% higher in August, following a 0.6% increase in July.  Compared to a year ago, the index was lower by 4.2%.  Food prices were up by 2.0% from July, and energy prices by 1.6%.  Petroleum prices rose by 4.3%, following a 9.5% increase in July.  Many analysts blame it on all the talk of war with Iraq.  A year ago, crude oil was 0.8% more expensive.  Natural gas prices rose by 0.4% in August but was 6.4% cheaper than a year ago.  The core PPI for crude goods was 0.4% higher.
     With the U.N. now considering the Iraqi situation, some Arab countries have expressed support for a potential U.N.-led effort to force Iraq into complying with U.N. resolutions.  The cooperation of oil-producing Arab countries may help boost confidence in the oil markets and hence lower prices.  (George Huang)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
 

AUGUST FILMING ACTIVITY UP

     According to the Entertainment Industry Development Corporation, the number of off-lot production days increased by 25.9% over the year in August.  Setting the pace were features, with a 102.7% gain.  TV was up by 22.2%, while commercial activity was about flat with just a 1.2% increase.  Music was down, however, by 34.5%.
     At 2,640 off-lot days, August was the strongest month for the year to date, although the March count of 2,634 production days was right behind.  August was also the highest number since April, 2001, which came in at 2,929.  Hollywood seems to be getting back on track, after the dismal days of the "de facto" strike.  (Jack Kyser)
 

NEW PUBLICATIONS POLICY

     In an effort to provide even more benefit to our communities, LAEDC is now experimenting with a new publications policy.  All LAEDC publications are still available for sale in professionally printed and bound versions, but they will also be available for downloading from our new information website: http://laedc.info .   Publications that are not available in electronic format and not supported by advertising revenue will continue to be distributed in printed form.  LAEDC members will continue to receive the printed versions automatically.  If you wish to purchase printed copies of any of our books, please visit http://www.laedc.org/data/economic_research/publications.shtml .
     We believe good, timely information allows people to make better decisions, and better decisions mean more success and growth.  Thus the new policy helps fulfill LAEDC's mission of promoting growth in the Los Angeles area.  We would like to thank all LAEDC members for their support of our organization and our mission, and we look forward to see others joining this effort.  If you are interested in joining the LAEDC as a member, please visit http://www.laedc.org/membership/index.shtml for more information.
     Interested in sponsoring our publications and getting exposure for your company?  Please contact our Research Department at 213-236-4820 or e-mail to research@laedc.org .
     P.S.  To avoid overwhelming our accounting department, we are not giving refunds to those who have already paid for their books before 9/16/02.  We sincerely apologize for any frustration this may cause.
 

FOCUSING ON REGION'S CHALLENGES

     The L.A. region is the 10th largest economy in the world.  Yet it faces many challenges in terms of infrastructure support.  The future of the region depends on the decisions we make today.  To help you better understand what's at stake, LAEDC has prepared a slide show titled The Sixty-Mile Circle.  Download your copy at http://www.laedc.org/data/economic_research/60MileCircle.pdf (10MB, broadband Internet connection recommended).
 

WORKSHOP ON BUSINESS NEGOTIATIONS

     Larta University presents a workshop on business negotiations.  Taking a holistic approach, participants
learn how to prepare effectively, how to commence and conduct a negotiation and how to use special methods and tactics that professionals commonly employ.  It will be held on Wednesday, Sept. 25, from 9am to 12pm.  Please visit http://www.larta.org/lartau/courses.htm#negotiation for more information.
 

VOTER REGISTRATION

     The election is only two months away.  Information on voter registration is available at: http://regrec.co.la.ca.us/voter/voter_reg.htm
 

APARTMENT CONFERENCE

     The Real Estate Conference Group presents "Apartments 2002" conference.  It will be held on Thursday, Sept. 19, at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.  Please visit http://www.realestateoutlook.com for more information.
 

7TH ANNUAL EDDY AWARDS DINNER -- A night to share in the lives of some of the great visionaries of our time.  (Repeat announcement)

     The Eddy Awards are in recognition of excellence in economic development.  The Eddy Award recipients this year have all played an essential role in the evolution of the new downtown LA --they have changed its landscape and made it rich with culture, architecture, opportunity, entertainment and spirit.  More than anything, they've given Los Angeles the vitality necessary to become the thriving metropolitan center that anchors the economy surrounding it.  Please join us on October 10th at the new Cathedral of our Lady of the Angels when the LAEDC awards seven outstanding honorees: Eli Broad, Timothy J. Leiweke, James A. Thomas, Cardinal Roger Mahony, Andrea L. Van de Kamp, Stephan D. Smith and Tonian Hohberg.  Please visit http://www.laedc.org/events/7th_eddy.shtml for more information.
 

TRADE SHOWS LISTINGS (Repeat announcement)

     LAEDC is now compiling a comprehensive listing of trade shows in Southern California.  Please send us such information.  Thank you so much.
     Our current listing includes fashion/apparel, textiles, shoes, home furnishings & giftware, and manufacturing.  It's available at http://www.laedc.org/trade_shows.html
 

QUICK STATS:

* BEA: US current account for 2Q02: -$130 billion (1Q02: -$112.5bil.)
* BLS: US export prices for 8/02: +0.1% (7/02: +0.3%)
* BLS: US import prices for 8/02: +0.3% (7/02: +0.4%)
* BLS: US Producer Price Index for finished goods for 8/02: +0.0% (7/02: -0.2%)
* BLS: US Producer Price Index for intermediate goods for 8/02: +0.4% (7/02: +0.2%)
* BLS: US Producer Price Index for crude goods for 8/02: +1.2% (7/02: +0.6%)
* Cal EDD: California unemployment rate for 8/02: 6.4% (7/02: 6.2%)
* Cal EDD: California nonfarm employment for 8/02: +12,900 (7/02: -139,200)
* Cal EDD: LA County unemployment rate for 8/02: 6.4% (7/02: 6.8%)
* Cal EDD: LA County nonfarm employment for 8/02: -300 (7/02: -39,500)
* Census: US retail sales for 8/02: +0.8% (7/02: +1.1%)
* Census: US business sales for 7/02: +1.2% (6/02: +0.3%)
* Census: US business inventories for 7/02: +0.4% (6/02: +0.3%)
* Univ of Michigan: US Consumer Sentiment Survey for 9/02: 86.2 (8/02: 87.6)
 

QUICK REMINDERS

* Real Estate Conference Group: Apartments 2002, Thursday, Sept 19, http://www.realestateoutlook.com

The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE) is a free service of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC). Permission to quote any proprietary part of this release is granted given proper credit. Distribution is allowed provided that no modifications are made to the original content. Sponsors of this service do not necessarily endorse all opinions stated herein. For more information, please e-mail to research@laedc.org. To contact LAEDC, please call 213-622-4300.

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