e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The state recorded an increase of 28,500 jobs (seasonally adjusted) from January to February, seemingly reversing a loss of 29,300 jobs from December to January. However, the information sector, which lost jobs due to a strike in January, accounted for 11,400 of February’s job gain. Education and health services chipped in with 10,100 jobs, which caused some head scratching. Over the year to February, the state added just 8,100 total jobs, a paltry 0.1% increase. Worse, employment in the private sector was down by -41,600 jobs over the year.
Looking at the unadjusted employment data for the state, the biggest gains over the year came in government (+50,700 jobs), health services (+33,600 jobs), and professional, scientific & technical services (+27,200 jobs). The largest losses over the year to February were found in construction (-71,800 jobs), finance & insurance (-36,300 jobs), and manufacturing (-25,900).
Nonfarm employment in Los Angeles County during February was down over the year by 0.4% or -15,100 jobs. The largest gains were in leisure & hospitality services (+8,500 jobs), government (+6,200 jobs), and health services (+6,400 jobs). The largest declines over the year to February were in information
(-14,700 jobs, with motion picture & sound recording accounting for the lion’s share), manufacturing (-9,600 jobs), and construction (-8,400 jobs). As to employment in entertainment, while the WGA strike ended in mid-February, television production was slow to ramp up. However, feature film production was robust as studios eyed the June 30th contract expiration with the Screen Actors Guild.
The February employment news for Orange County was even more downbeat, with the nonfarm job count down 1.4% or by -21,800 positions over the year. The largest gains came in health services (+2,300 jobs), retail (+1,800 jobs) and government (+1,600 jobs). The largest losses over the year came in finance & insurance (-16,900 jobs), construction (-4,200 jobs), administrative services
(-3,500 jobs), followed right behind by manufacturing (-3,400 jobs).
The Riverside-San Bernardino area saw February nonfarm employment decline by 1.1% or -14,300 jobs. The largest gains were in government (+6,800 jobs), health services (+4,400 jobs) and transportation & utilities (+1,700 jobs). The largest losses over the year were in construction (-12,400 jobs), manufacturing
(-5,900 jobs) and retailing (-2,900 jobs).
Nonfarm employment in San Diego County during February was essentially flat over the year, a gain of only 300 jobs which was “no change” in percentage terms. The largest increases were in leisure & hospitality services (+4,300 jobs), government (+2,900 jobs) and health services (+2,400 jobs). The largest losses came in construction (-8,300 jobs), finance & insurance (-3,500 jobs), and real estate (-2,000 jobs).
Ventura County’s February nonfarm employment was down by 1.8% or -5,400 jobs over the year. The largest gains over the year were in education services (+400 jobs) and other services and government with 300 new jobs each. The largest losses came in construction and manufacturing -- each down by -1,900 jobs -- and administrative services (-1,200 jobs).
In the Bay Area, the Oakland metro area’s February nonfarm employment numbers were gloomy, down by 0.3% or -3,300 jobs over the year. However, the news was fairly good for the San Francisco metro area, with an increase of 2.0% or 19,100 jobs over the year. The San Jose area saw a 0.8% or 7,600 nonfarm job gain in February, spurred along by a 3,300 job gain over the year in manufacturing. (Jack Kyser)
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
February’s unemployment rates were released last week by the California Employment Development Department (EDD). Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, down from both 5.7% in January and from 5.4% in December, yet up from 4.7% a year earlier. February marked the ninth consecutive month the County’s unemployment rate increased over the previous year; however, it continued at or below than the state’s unemployment rate for the twenty-fourth consecutive month.
In California, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.7% in February, down from 5.9% in both January and December, but higher than a year earlier when the jobless rate was 5.0%. The nation as a whole saw unemployment fall to 4.8% in February from 4.9% in January and 5.0% in December. However, that was higher than last February’s rate of 4.5%.
Although the combined Los Angeles five-county area unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) fell by -0.4 percentage points compared to January, it was +0.8 percentage points higher than a year earlier. Riverside County (7.0%) experienced the largest increase, up by +1.4 percentage points from last year. Similarly, San Bernardino’s unemployment rose +1.2 percentage points to reach 6.3%, while Ventura County’s rate (5.5%) rose by +0.8 percentage points. The Orange County (4.3%) and the Los Angeles County non-adjusted (5.5%) unemployment rates both increased by +0.7 percentage points over the year.
San Diego County saw its unadjusted rate of unemployment decrease to 5.0%, which was -0.2 percentage points lower than January but still +0.7 percentage points higher than a year earlier.
The Bay Area’s combined unemployment rate in February (also not seasonally adjusted) decreased -0.2 percentage points from January to 4.9%. This was still +0.5 percentage points higher than the previous February. Joblessness increased over the last 12 months by +0.5 percentage points in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (to 5.2%) and the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 5.1%). The San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division saw its unemployment increase to 4.1%, a +0.2 percentage point increase from a year earlier. (Eduardo J. Martinez and April Lisonbee)
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate
| Area | Feb 08 | Jan 08 | Dec 07 | Feb 07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 4.80% | 4.90% | 5.00% | 4.50% | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| California | 5.70% | 5.90% | 5.90% | 5.00% | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 5.30% | 5.70% | 5.40% | 4.70% | -0.4 | 0.6 |
Not Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate
| Area | Feb 08 | Jan 08 | Dec 07 | Feb 07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 5.20% | 5.40% | 4.80% | 4.90% | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| California | 6.10% | 6.40% | 5.90% | 5.40% | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 5.30% | 5.70% | 5.40% | 4.80% | -0.4 | 0.5 |
| Orange Co. | 4.30% | 4.50% | 4.30% | 3.60% | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino Cos. | 7.00% | 7.10% | 6.90% | 5.60% | -0.1 | 1.4 |
| Ventura Co. | 5.50% | 5.90% | 5.70% | 4.70% | -0.4 | 0.8 |
| San Diego Co. | 5.00% | 5.20% | 5.00% | 4.30% | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Oakland MD | 5.10% | 5.30% | 5.00% | 4.60% | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| San Francisco MD | 4.10% | 4.30% | 4.10% | 3.90% | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| San Jose MSA | 5.20% | 5.30% | 5.10% | 4.70% | -0.1 | 0.5 |
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/urate200803.pdf
Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/CalPR.pdf
The latest hotel data from PKF Consulting revealed that the sector continued to perform well in January. In Los Angeles County, the occupancy rate was 72.4% compared with 72.0% in January 2007. The average daily room rate (ADR) rose by 6.2% to $164.81. By area in the County, the best January performances were turned in by: Hollywood (a 77.8% occupancy rate), LAX (77.5%), and “Other West LA” (a 77.1% occupancy rate). The January occupancy rate in the I-5 Corridor/Whittier area, however, eased to 75.3% from 76.5% in January 2007 (we watch this area closely because it is a “business” market). Beverly Hills continued to post the highest ADR in the County, up by 3.7% over the year to January to $443.62.
In Orange County, the January occupancy rate slipped a tad to 66.4% from 66.6% a year-ago. The ADR moved up by 5.2% to $150.22. The highest occupancy rate during January was found in Costa Mesa (72.2%), while the Newport Beach area enjoyed the highest ADR, up by 6.7% over the year to $206.57.
San Diego county saw its January hotel occupancy rate climb to 67.4% from 66.4% last year. The ADR rose by 3.3% to $163.71. By area, the highest occupancy rate in the County during January was found in Sports Arena/Old town (75.6%), while La Jolla posted the highest ADR, up by 5.5% over the year to $235.70. (Jack Kyser)
The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its county population estimates for July 2007. According to the Bureau, Riverside County was Southern California’s fasted growing area between 2006 and 2007. Its population rose by 3.3% or 66,365 persons to a total of 2,073,571 residents. San Bernardino County’s population increased by 1.0% or by 20,295 persons to a July 1, 2007 count of 2,007,800 residents. San Diego County was right behind with a 0.9% population increase, or 26,497 persons, to a total of 2,974,859 residents.
Ventura County recorded a 0.5% population increase between 2006 and 2007, up by 4,359 persons to a total of 798,364 residents. However, Los Angeles County saw its population edge down by 2,354 persons (no change in percentage terms), to 9,878,554 residents.
The California Department of Finance (DoF) came out with their July 1, 2007 population estimates in mid-December 2007, and comparisons with the Census estimates are interesting. The two agencies were fairly close on the head count in Riverside County, with the Census Bureau placing the population at 2,073,571 people, while the DoF estimated 2,070,315 residents. The 2006-2007 numerical gains were close as well, Census reporting a gain of 66,365 persons while DoF counted 66,141 new residents.
However, there were significant differences for the other five counties, with the DoF counting more people than the Census Bureau. The best example was Los Angeles County, where the DoF estimated there were 10,294,280 residents, and the 2006-2007 population gain at 46,608 people. (Jack Kyser)
July 1, 2007 Population
| Yr/Yr Population Change ('07-'06) | ||||
| Census Bureau | CA DoF | Census Bureau | CA DoF | |
| Los Angeles Co. | 9,878,554 | 10,294,280 | -2,354 | 46,608 |
| Orange Co. | 2,997,033 | 3,098,183 | 11,107 | 22,842 |
| Riverside Co. | 2,073,571 | 2,070,315 | 66,365 | 66,141 |
| San Bernardino Co. | 2,007,800 | 2,039,467 | 20,295 | 28,063 |
| San Diego Co. | 2,974,859 | 3,120,088 | 26,497 | 42,211 |
| Ventura Co. | 798,364 | 826,550 | 4,359 | 7,747 |
| So. California Total | 20,730,181 | 21,448,883 | 126,269 | 213,612 |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Finance
PR: http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
PR: http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts edged down by -0.6% in February to 1.06 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), after rising by +7.1% in January. Construction was started on 707,000 single-family homes in February, down by -6.7% over the month. Last month’s single family starts were the lowest level since March 1991, and before that September 1982 (Yecch!). In the multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), some 358,000 units were started last month, up by 14.4% from 313,000 units in January.
Total housing starts peaked back in January, 2006 at 2.29 million units, with single-family starts at 1.75 million units. February starts activity was down by -50% from the peak quarter (1q2006). Single-family and multi-family starts were down by -60% and -5% respectively.
The underlying fundamentals in the housing industry continue to be negative. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes taken by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) continued near the record low level set in November (data go back to 1985). Four-fifths of the builders reported slow sales, and 81% complained about low buyer traffic. Expectations for future sales also remained downbeat.
Total housing starts reached a low for this downturn in December at 1.0 million units. However, single-family activity continued to fall through February and is now at a VERY low level. Even so, most builders and industry observers expect housing construction activity to move down some more from here. They disagree though on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take until the bottom is reached. The “optimists” expect the trough in new construction will be reached this spring or summer, while the “pessimists” forecast declining starts throughout 2008 with a bottom some time in 2009. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
The Federal Reserve Board reported last week that industrial production in the U.S. fell by -0.5% in February (seasonally adjusted), after increasing by 0.1% in January and by 0.2% in December. The weakest performance were turned in by utilities (-3.7% over the month, due to February‘s unusually warm weather), furniture manufacturing (-3.0%), wood products (-2.9%), printing (-1.9%), and motor vehicles & parts (-1.0%). Meanwhile, output of high technology products (computers & peripherals, communications equipment and semiconductors) rose by 1.1% in February, following increases of 0.3% in January and 0.6% in December. Excluding automotive and high tech, manufacturing output fell by -0.3% last month, held back by declines in production of construction supplies (-0.8%), business supplies (-0.7%), and materials (-0.4%).
The industrial sector looks only a bit better if we take a longer view. Total industrial production last month was up by 1.0% compared to February 2007. Output of high tech products has risen by 17.3%, a very healthy pace. However, production of motor vehicles and parts was down by -2.7% over the year. Excluding these two important sectors, industrial production increased by just 0.7% over the year. Business equipment was the best performer, with output up by 4.4%. Production of materials grew by 1.1%. Meanwhile, output of construction supplies fell by -1.0% from the year ago level, and production of business supplies was down by -0.9%.
Weakness in the housing- and automotive-related sectors is clearly dragging down U.S. manufacturing. The only real strength has been in the high technology and aerospace sectors, both important to California and the Los Angeles area. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf
Wholesale prices as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI) for total finished goods moved higher in February, led once again by elevated energy prices. The PPI for finished goods rose moderately over the month in February, rising by 0.3% and was up by 6.4% from February 2007. The consumer food price index declined for the month by -0.5% following a 1.7% increase in January and was 6.0% higher than the same period a year ago. Within the food group, month-over-month increases were experienced in milled rice (+7.9%), pasta products (3.7%), and eggs (+1.6%) wholesale prices. On the other hand, notable declines were registered in prices of fresh fruits (-10.4%) and fresh vegetables (-15.7%) during February. Though wholesale prices of dairy products have been declining for the past couple of months and were down by -1.5% between January and February, they were still way up from a year ago (+18.0%).
Wholesale energy prices advanced moderately in February, rising by 0.8%. Year-over-year wholesale energy prices were up by 19.6%. Wholesale gasoline prices increased by 2.9% over the month and were up by a whopping 43.2% from a year ago. While home heating oil wholesale prices declined by 3.7% over the month, they were still higher than a year ago, up by 36.8%. Excluding food and energy, the core finished goods index was up by 0.5% in February and was up by 2.4% from the same period a year ago.
Wholesale prices for intermediate goods also increased moderately month-over-month, rising by 0.8% in February. Intermediate food and feeds wholesale prices rose by 2.3% over the month. Flour prices increased by 15.2% over the month and were significantly higher than February 2007, up by a whopping 93.0%! Farmers’ costs continued to increase as well, with prices of fertilizers and energy both higher during the month and over the year. Intermediate energy prices rose by 1.1% in February and were 22.6% higher than the same period a year ago. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for intermediate goods rose by just 0.6% over the month. The core intermediate goods index has risen by 4.8% over the past 12 months. Compared to a year ago, the overall intermediate goods index was up by 8.8%.
Wholesale prices for crude goods rose by 3.7% over the month in February. Crude food and feeds prices rose a little, up by 0.7% in February. Within this group, wheat wholesale prices kept rising, up by 19.2% over the month and up by 163.8% (yes, that’s correct!) over the year. Wheat prices have been increasing over the year due to a very dry year during 2007 in wheat producing countries and conversion of acreage in production towards corn and other oil-producing crops for biodiesel. Global wheat stocks are the lowest in 30 years. In addition, the weak U.S. dollar has resulted in increased world demand, leaving very low supply for domestic consumption. Soybean prices were 78.2% higher than February 2007. Soybeans are used largely for oil extraction. Energy prices rose over the month as well, rising by 5.6% following a 1.8% increase in January. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for crude goods was up by 3.3% over the month. Compared to a year ago, the overall crude goods index was up by 24.6%. (Candice Flor Hynek)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
WASDE: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-03-11-2008.pdf
April 7-8
Asia Pacific Business Outlook 2008
USC-Davidson Conference Center, Los Angeles. Early registration fee $775 until March 10, 2008. Regular registration fee: $925 after March 10, 2008.
The Asia/Pacific Business Outlook conference can be the catalyst for your success in Asia. Learn about the latest trade and investment opportunities and challenges from 50 concurrent sessions on 15 Asia/Pacific economies. Build your international business network through APBO's unprecendented access to 60 experts with on-the-ground knowledge and experience. Schedule one-on-one consultations with U.S. Senior Commercial Officers from each American embassy around Asia/Pacific region for private consultations and get specific answers to your questions.
Thursday, April 17
Housing Market Cycles with John Burns
11:30 a.m. at the Downtown Los Angeles Marriott.
The Los Angeles Chapter of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) presents “Housing Market Cycles” with John Burns. Mr. Burns consults to numerous builders and others in the real-estate industry throughout the United States. He will offer his latest observations on the state of the economy and housing market. The luncheon is on Thursday, April 17th at the Downtown Los Angeles Marriott. To register and for more information, please visit www.lanabe.org. Early bird registration available until April 10th.
Thursday, May 8
2008 San Fernando Valley Economic Summit
7:30 a.m. - 1 p.m. at the Sheraton Universal Hotel.
Featuring National Economic Overview, Economic Trend & Opportunities, and Valley Economic & Real Estate Report.
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