e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The U.S. economy shrank by -6.1% last quarter according to “advance” estimates of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This pace was nearly as bad as the -6.3% recorded during fourth quarter 2008. Indeed, the past two quarters marked the economy’s worst performance since the 1957-1958 recession more than 50 years ago. [All percentage changes in this article are seasonally adjusted annual rates and adjusted for changes in inflation.]
Downside pressures were heavy and widespread during the first quarter.
Only two sectors made positive contributions to GDP growth during the first quarter.
There’s no two ways about it. The U.S. economy continued in steep recession during the first quarter, with five major sectors in decline. The government’s stimulus plan should help matters, but it’s just getting into gear now and improvements in business investment, exports and housing will take a while longer. Consumer spending increased a bit last quarter, a hopeful sign because consumer spending accounts for 70% of total GDP. But consumers simply won’t be able to carry the whole economy as long as unemployment is rising so fast. This recession is clearly not over yet.
Note: The BEA called its release an “advance” report because all of the figures are still preliminary. When preparing its estimates, the BEA did not know for sure what happened to foreign trade, inventories, or construction in March and had to make some assumptions, which may or may not prove correct. Also, the information on consumer spending during March is still incomplete. We’ll get a clearer picture of the first quarter economy a month from now. Just don’t expect it to be any prettier. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: www.bea.gov
Plant closures in Asia, especially in China for New Years celebrations, resulted in sharp declines in international trade values at the state’s three customs districts. At Los Angeles, the value of total two-way trade during February fell by -32.3% over the year to $18.6 billion. As expected, the value of imports took the biggest hit, down by -35.4%, while exports dropped by -25.5%.
The San Francisco district saw its total two-trade value fall by -37.3% during February to $5.8 billion. Import values were off by -41.3% and exports were down by -31.6% over the year. At the San Diego district, the total trade value in February dropped by -25.8% to $3.2 billion. Imports fell by -27.0% while exports were off by -23.1%. (Jack Kyser)
PR: www.bea.gov
The retail automotive industry ended April with an unexpected and disappointing drop in sales over the month. A total of 9.3 million vehicles were sold during April in the U.S. (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), down by -5.5% (or -0.6 million vehicles) from March 2009, and down substantially (by -29.5%) over the year with -3.9 million fewer sales recorded than in April 2008.
Total car sales, including both foreign and domestic models, decreased by -28.4% from twelve months earlier (to 4.8 million SAAR). Foreign auto sales fell by -26.1% below last April (to 1.7 million SAAR), while domestic auto sales declined by -29.5% over the year (to 3.1 million SAAR).
Combined sales of foreign and domestic light truck models also posted a year-on-year decline, falling by -30.8% (or -2.0 million SAAR) fewer vehicles sold. Foreign light truck sales sank to 0.8 million vehicles (SAAR) in April, their lowest level in eight years and down by -33.3% from a year ago (-0.4 million SAAR). Domestic light truck sales (at 3.7 million) fell in April by -30.2% from last year’s numbers.
So far, government support of domestic automotive manufacturers and thawing credit markets, have not been enough to counter the economic fallout from the recession. April sales levels were below average sales for the first quarter of 2009. At that rate, the automotive industry might be a drag on second quarter economic activity. (Kimberly Ritter)
PR: www.bea.gov
http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html
The California Department of Finance has just released new estimates of state and local population as of January 1, 2009. Over the year, California’s grew by +1.1% or by 409,000 persons to a total of 38,292,687 people. Since the April 1, 2000 Census, the state has added 4,419,600 residents.
Around Southern California, Los Angeles County’s population grew by +0.9% between 2008 and 2009. The numeric gain was 91,500 people, moving the total up to 10,393,200 residents. Since the 2000 Census, the County has added 873,800 people. The County’s largest cities also recorded gains between 2008 and 2009. Los Angeles city was up by +1.1% or by 43,100 people to a total of 4,065,500 persons. Long Beach recorded a +0.6% increase, or 2,800 people to a total of 492,700 residents.
Orange County’s January 1, 2009 population rose by +1.0% over the year, or by 31,500 residents. Its total was 3,139,000 people. Since the 2000 Census, the County has added 292,700 residents. The County’s largest cities also saw growth, with Santa Ana’s population up by +1.2% to 355,700 people, while Anaheim saw a +0.9% gain to 348,500 residents.
Housing and mortgage problems conspired to slow population growth in Riverside County. Between 2008 and 2009, there was +1.4% gain or just 29,100 residents, moving the January 1, 2009 total to 2,107,700. (In the period between 2004 and 2006, gains of over 4% were recorded by the County.) Between the 2000 Census and 2009, the County added 562,300 residents. The County also saw two new cities incorporate, Wildomar and Menifee. This raised the County’s total number of cities to 26. The County’s largest city, Riverside, saw its population expand by +1.4% between 2008 and 2009 to 300,400.
San Bernardino County’s population rose by +0.8% between 2008 and 2009. The numeric increase was 16,100 people, moving the 2009 total to 2,060,900 people. Since the 2000 Census, the County has added 350,800 people. The County’s largest city, San Bernardino, saw its population inch up by +0.1% between 2008 and 2009 to 204,500 residents.
San Diego County’s population as of January 1, 2009 was 3,173,400, an increase of +1.3% or 41,900 people over the year. Since the 2000 Census, the County has experienced a population increase of 359,600 residents. The county’s largest city, San Diego, recorded a +1.5% increase or 20,400 residents to a 2009 count of 1,354,000 people.
Ventura County’s January 1, 2009 population was 836,100, an increase of +1.1% or 8,800 people over the year. Since the 2000 Census, the County has added 82,900 people. The County’s largest city, Oxnard, saw a 2008-2009 population growth of +1.6% or 3,200 people, moving the January 1, 2009 total to 197,100 residents.
As of January 1, 2009, the six Southern California counties had a population of 21,710,300 people. That was up by 3,275,300 residents since 2000. (Jack Kyser)
Thursday, May 7: 2009 World Trade Week Kickoff Breakfast
Join the L.A. trade community as USC President Steve Sample kicks-off World Trade Week at the 83rd Annual Kickoff Breakfast. The Breakfast unites over 400 individuals in the international trade community in Southern California and honors individuals and organizations for their work in the international community.
Wednesday, May 13: International Trade Outlook 2009
Join the WTCA Los Angeles-Long Beach and the LAEDC and our special guests as we examine the outlook for international trade in the coming year and determine where the real opportunities lie in the international trade sector.
Thursday, May 21: 2009 California-China Trade & Investment Conference: Developing Stronger Commercial Ties Between California & China
This Conference will provide valuable insider information to the business owner on how to profit in China now. Expert speakers will go to the core of doing business in China while enticing Chinese investment in California. The U.S. Commercial Service and the District Export Council will demonstrate case histories of how they have provided valuable services to build a successful US-China business relationship.
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