e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]December turned out to be a pretty good month in some parts of the retail world but not all. U.S. retail and food service sales edged down by -0.3% last month. However, sales had previously risen by +1.8% in November and +1.1% in October; so last month's decline wasn't too worrisome. Five sectors (out of 14) registered higher sales in December. Increases were reported by: sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, rising by +1.6%; followed by nonstore retailers (mostly mail order houses and internet sellers, +1.2%); gasoline stations (+1.0%, due to higher prices); health & personal care stores (+0.8%); and furniture & home furnishings stores (+0.3%). Department stores reported no change in sales over the month. [All figures in this paragraph are seasonally adjusted.]
Electronic & appliance stores and miscellaneous store retailers dragged total retail sales down last month, as sales fell by -2.6% and -1.0% respectively. Both of these declines reversed previous gains made in November. Other store types reported smaller sales declines ranging from -0.8% (for motor vehicles & parts dealers and food & beverage stores) to -0.4% (for building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers).
This month's report also presented preliminary information for sales during calendar year 2009. Total retail and food service sales were down--by -6.2%--compared with 2008. The details by store type were mixed, with four types reporting higher sales in 2009 and 10 types reporting lower sales. Sectors that gained were led by health & personal care stores (+3.3%); other general merchandise stores (excluding department stores, +2.7%); food service & drinking places (up by +0.7%); and food & beverage stores (+0.3%). Store types reporting lower sales included: gasoline stations (down by -24.5%, due to lower prices earlier in 2009); motor vehicles & parts (down by -12.3% over the year); building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-11.6%); and furniture & home furnishings stores (-11.1% over the year).
Still, it does look as if retail sales are finally beginning to turn around. Total retail & food service sales were up by +1.7% in the October-December quarter compared with July-September, with 12 sectors registering sales gains and only two reporting lower sales last quarter. The two laggards were holdovers from the collapse in housing construction: building material & garden equipment supplies dealers (down by just -0.7% over the quarter) and furniture & home furnishing stores (-0.3%). Retail sector gainers in the fourth quarter were led by: gasoline stations (+8.2%, higher prices again); nonstore retailers (+4.4%); and electronics & appliance stores (+2.0%). (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The overall Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) edged up by +0.1% last month after increasing by +0.4% in November. Over the year (2009), headline consumer inflation increased by +2.7% compared with the 2008 when the CPI-U rose by just +0.1%.
The Core U.S. Consumer Price Index (all items less food and energy) also rose by +0.1% in December after remaining unchanged in November. Over the last twelve months, core CPI was up by +1.8% (the same increase as in 2008). December’s advance was broad based. Prices for used cars and trucks rose by +2.5% and accounted for almost half of the increase in the core index. Prices for new cars however, dipped by -0.3% after rising in each of the three previous months. Airline fares rose again – advancing by +2.4% in December following a +3.8% increase in November. The shelter index remained unchanged, but several other indexes posted small gains:
The only major expenditure category to post a decline in December was recreation. Prices fell by -0.4% and by the same amount compared to December 2008. Contributing to the decline in the recreation index were lower prices for televisions, sporting goods and toys.
Outside the core CPI components, the energy index was up by +0.2% in December after rising by +4.1% in November. Over the last 12 months, the energy index jumped by +18.2% after falling by -21.3% in 2008. Higher energy prices reflected the surge in gasoline prices. During 2009, gasoline prices posted a sharp increase (+53.5%) after tumbling by -43.1% in 2008.
The food and beverage index rose by +0.2% last month after rising by +0.1% in November. Within the food index, food at home prices increased by +0.3% (the largest gain since October 2008), and food away from home edged up by +0.1%. Food prices were down by -0.5% for the twelve months ending December 2009. This was the first December to December decline in the food index since 1961. In 2008, the food index rose by +5.9%
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index fell by -0.3% in December after declining by -0.4% in November. Last month, prices were lower or unchanged in every major category except food and medical care. Over the past year, the regional all-items index increased by +1.8% as the result of higher energy prices. The energy index has risen by +36.0% since December 2008. [Note: local consumer price index data are not seasonally adjusted]
During the month of December, the local transportation index remained unchanged after slipping by -0.2% in November. Gasoline prices fell by -1.3% but were up by +60.2% (!) over the year. Since December 2008, transportation prices advanced by +14.0%. The transportation index comprises just over 16% of the Los Angeles CPI all-items index.
Food and beverage prices in the Los Angeles area ticked up by +0.3% last month after falling by -0.5% in November. Over the past 12 months, prices for food and beverages declined by -1.2%. The food at home index, which measures grocery prices, rose by +0.6% in December but was down by -4.2% over the year.
The housing index (47% of the Los Angeles Area’s all-items index) fell by -0.4% last month, and was down by -0.9% compared with 12 months ago. Apparel prices dropped by -0.7% for the month, but increased by +3.4% over the year. Medical care prices rose by +0.2% in December and increased by +3.2% on a year-over basis. (Kimberly Ritter)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.pdf
FilmL.A., the agency that coordinates on-location filming in the city of Los Angeles, unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County and some other jurisdictions, reported that total on-location filming declined by -19.4% in 2009. The agency noted that this was the steepest year-over-year decline since tracking of this metric began in 1993.
By major category, feature film production dropped by -29.9% from 2008 to 2009. Television production was down by -16.6%, with the sharpest declines in reality shows and sitcoms. Commercials were off by -12.0%.
However, FilmL.A. did have some good news to report. They noted that feature film production in the fourth quarter of 2009 was up over the year, which they attributed to California’s Film and Television Tax Credit. Of the film and television projects that qualified for the credit, 17 have already been issued location filming permits. FilmL.A. also observed that commercial production was up in both the third and fourth quarters of 2009, this increase was attributed to the budding economic recovery, and companies ramping up their advertising activity. (Jack Kyser)
The November report on Bay Area hotel activity from PKF Consulting was uninspiring. In San Francisco, the occupancy rate was 70.1% compared with 68.5% last year. However, to obtain even that occupancy, inn keepers chopped the average daily room rate (ADR) by -13.2% to $155.02. By area in the City, the Financial District saw its occupancy rate jump up to 77.1% compared with 70.5% last year. However, rate cutting in that was even more aggressive, with the ADR down by -15.0% to $186.14.
The November numbers for San Jose/Peninsula were no great shakes either. The occupancy rate was 60.2% versus 59.9% last year. But again, there was rate cutting, with the ADR down by -13.1% over the year to $112.44. (Jack Kyser)
The total number of containers handled in December at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach rose by +3.9 percent on a year-to-year basis, to 1,030,227 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). This was the sixth consecutive month of TEU totals above one million units after seven months of TEU totals below that mark. The Port of Long Beach experienced the most dramatic increases in trade volumes, as loaded containers grew by +8.7 percent in December from the same month last year. At the Port of Los Angeles, total loaded containers were up slightly by +0.3 percent. However, on the downside the total number of containers handled at Los Angeles and Long Beach (including empties) deteriorated by -17.6 percent on a calendar year basis.
The Port of Los Angeles reported a total of 273,978 outbound TEUs in the month of December, a decrease from 276,711 TEUs in November. The Port of Long Beach saw a total of 123,084 outbound TEUs (excluding empties) for the month of December, an increase of +7.7 percent from November.
Loaded inbound traffic at the Port of Los Angeles declined by -4.8 percent from November to December, falling from 303,494 TEUs to 289,010 TEUs. The Port of Long Beach reported a rise in the total number of inbound loaded containers, to 232,586 TEUs in December compared with 228,347 TEUs in November, an increase of +1.9 percent.
The Port of Oakland reported that its total inbound container traffic rose from November to December, while outbound container traffic also expanded. The total number of inbound TEUs was 87,290 last month (76,493 in November), while the total number of outbound TEUs came in at 101,458 (98,123 in November). Oakland’s total TEU count jumped by +8.1% in December. Over the year, Oakland’s total TEU count was up by +12.9 percent. (Ferdinando Guerra)
PR:http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp,http://www.polb.com/
http://www.portofoakland.com/
California maintained its position as the second largest state exporter in November, with total exports valued at $10.95 billion. Texas remained the top state exporter in the nation with total exports valued at $14.97 billion. California’s exports fell by -1.2% from October to November. However, exports in November were up by +1.9% over the year, the first year-to-year increase since October 2008.
The top Californian export markets in November were Mexico, China (including Hong Kong and Macao), Canada, Japan, and South Korea. Exports to Mexico, California’s largest market, increased by +7.1% over the year. California’s second largest market, China, actually witnessed the highest annual increase, a +31.3% rise over the year, in November. The state’s fourth largest market, Japan, experienced the largest year-to-year decline, a -18.4% drop in November. Exports to South Korea and Canada weakened by -2.0% and -5.4%, respectively. From an industry standpoint, the top three product exports (ranked by dollar value) remained computer & electronic products, transportation equipment and machinery. (Ferdinando Guerra)
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $36.4 billion in the month of November, from a revised $33.2 billion in October. The trade deficit rose by +9.6% over the month and was at its highest level since January 2009. The big stories in November were that U.S. demand for imports began to comeback and oil prices moved higher. Both imports and exports increased to their highest levels in a year, signaling a positive turnaround in world trade volumes. The economic recovery taking shape in the U.S. and especially in Asia should bode well for global trade prospects in 2010 and beyond.
Imports grew by +2.6% in November to $174.6 billion, the highest since last January. The $4.4 billion monthly increase in imports provided even more evidence that the U.S. economy was in recovery mode, boosting demand for consumer goods, capital goods and industrial supplies & materials.
U.S. exports slightly increased by +0.9% to $138.2 billion in November due to stronger foreign demand for food, cars, auto parts and capital goods. This was the highest level of exports since January 2009. In addition, November was the seventh consecutive month that exports have expanded albeit at a slower pace. Most major categories of exports experienced growth in November, though exports of consumer goods, industrial supplies and other goods decreased. The strengthening in exports continues to reflect the overall improvement in the Asian economies.
The U.S bilateral trade deficit with China contracted by -10.8% in November to $20.2 billion from $22.7 billion in October though it continued to be the largest trade deficit with any country. The monthly trade deficit with China has fallen significantly from its record level of $28 billion in October 2008. Imports from China were $27.6 billion in November, while exports were $7.3 billion (propelled by a strong increase in soybean exports). U.S. trade deficits with Mexico, Japan and the European Union widened in November, while the deficit with Canada declined. (Ferdinando Guerra)
PR: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2009/pdf/trad1109.pdf
January 24-25, 2010: VX2010: VERDEXCHANGE Green Marketmakers Conference (LAEDC members' discount code: LAEDCVX)
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010: LAEDC 2010-2011 Economic Forecast
7:00 a.m. Breakfast and Networking. 8:00 a.m. -10:30 a.m. Program. At the Los Angeles Marriott Downtown.
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March 3-5, 2010: CALED and IEDC: Economic Development Credit Analysis
The Westin Bonaventure (404 South Figueroa Street), Los Angeles. Early bird registration (by Jan 20th): $525. Non-IEDC Member Rate: $625.
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