e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]January turned out to be a pretty good month in some parts of the retail world though not all. Total U.S. retail and food service sales increased by +0.5% last month. Sales had previously edged down by -0.1% in December after jumping by +2.0% in November and +1.2% in October. Ten sectors (out of 14) registered higher sales in January. The biggest increases over the month were reported by: other general merchandise stores (excluding department stores, +2.2%); nonstore retailers (mostly electronic shopping sellers and mail order houses, +1.6%); electronics & appliance stores (rising by +1.2%); followed by sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (+1.0%). Motor vehicle & parts dealers reported no change in sales over the month. [All figures in this paragraph are seasonally adjusted.]
The three categories reporting lower sales in January were: furniture & home furnishings stores (-1.4% over the month); building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-1.2%); and miscellaneous store retailers (-1.1%).
Comparing January 2010 sales with the same month last year gives some additional perspective. [All figures in this paragraph are not seasonally adjusted.] Total retail and food service sales were up by +3.2% compared with January 2009. The details by store type were a little more mixed than the January 2010 figures, as nine store types reported higher sales this year while five store types reported lower sales. Sectors that gained over the year were led by: gasoline stations (up by +27.7%, due to lower prices early in 2009); nonstore retailers (+10.1%); sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (+5.5%); and other general merchandise stores (excluding department stores, +5.3%). Store types reporting lower sales included three tied to housing construction and home furnishings: building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-9.9% over the year); electronics & appliance stores (-7.6%); and furniture & home furnishings stores (-6.4%).
It looks as if retail sales are finally beginning to turn around. Smoothing out the month-to-month variations, total retail & food service sales were up by +2.1% in the November-January period compared with the previous three months (August-October). Thirteen sectors registered sales gains and only one reported lower sales in this comparison. The laggard was clothing & accessories stores, down by -1.1% over the three-month period. No matter how we look at it, this report has a more positive tone than we’ve seen in some time. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
Seven months into the 2009/2010 fiscal year, California’s reported budget position once again posted a large shortfall in revenues relative to disbursements. Total revenues fell short of disbursements by -$12.2 billion. The State’s cash balance now stands at -$24.1 billion ($11.9 billion of which was carried over from the end of the 2008/2009 FY). The latest financial results released by the State Controller for the General Fund show that during the first seven months of FY 2009-2010, total receipts decreased by -4.7% to $46.8 billion (down by -$2.3 billion compared with the same period last year). Total disbursements also fell – dropping by -$8.1 billion to $59.0 billion (or by -12.1% on a year-over basis).
Looking at the “big three” revenue sources, corporate tax receipts declined by -2.1% to $4.0 billion (compared with January 2009 fiscal year-to-date) while revenues from retail sales and use taxes jumped by +9.4% to $14.0 billion. Persistent statewide high unemployment (12.4% in December) continued to curb personal income tax receipts (the largest contributor to state revenues). In January, personal income taxes plunged again – dropping by -10.0% to $25.1 billion compared to the same period last year. Overall, collections for the “big three” revenue sources were down by -3.7% during the first seven months of the fiscal year.
On the expenditure side, Local K-12 Education received $21.2 billion during July 2009-January 2010, a decrease of -$1.3 billion from the same period last year. Community Colleges received $2.7 billion, an increase of +$22.7 million over the prior year. Contributions to CALSTRS (the teachers’ pension fund) also increased – rising by +13.3% to $793.3 million. Spending for the Department of Corrections fell again in January to $5.0 billion (-15.4%) compared with $5.9 billion last year. Spending on Health and Human Services fell sharply, declining by -23.1% to $1.1 billion. Payments to Resources dropped by -23.4% to $791.3 million compared with last year and spending on General Government slipped by -1.0% to $912.5 million. Meanwhile, debt service payments increased by +4.5% to $2.3 billion.
As of the end of January, the State had $28.7 billion in borrowable resources against $24.1 billion in outstanding loans which left just $4.6 billion in unused borrowable resources. The outstanding loan balance of $24.1 billion is comprised of $15.3 billion of internal borrowing and $8.8 billion of external borrowing (short-term revenue anticipation notes). (Kimberly Ritter)
PR: http://www.sco.ca.gov/eo_pressrel.html
California maintained its position as the second largest state exporter in December, with total exports valued at $11.6 billion. California’s exports rose by +6.1% from November to December. More impressively, exports in December were up by +12% over the year, the second consecutive year-to-year increase and the first in double digits.
The top California export markets in December were Mexico, China (including Hong Kong and Macao), Canada, Japan, and South Korea. Exports to Mexico, California’s largest market, increased by +8.9% over the year. California’s second largest market, China, actually witnessed the highest annual increase, a stunning +49.6% rise over the year, in December. The state’s fifth largest market, South Korea, experienced the second largest year-to-year increase, with a +47.7% rise in December. Exports to Canada and Japan strengthened by +3.6% and +0.2%, respectively. From an industry standpoint, the top three product exports (ranked by dollar value) remained computer & electronic products, transportation equipment and machinery. (Ferdinando Guerra)
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit expanded to $40.2 billion in the month of December, from $36.4 billion in November. The deficit rose by +10.4% over the month and was at its highest level since February 2009. The big stories in December were that U.S. demand for imports began to recover and oil prices moved higher. Imports increased to their highest levels in over a year, while exports jumped to their highest level in almost three years. Both trends demonstrate that global economic growth continued in December. The economic recovery taking shape in the U.S. and especially in Asia bodes well for global trade volumes this year and beyond.
Imports grew by +4.8% in December to $182.9 billion, the highest since January 2009. The $8.4 billion monthly increase in imports provided evidence that the U.S. economy was in recovery mode, which boosted demand for industrial supplies & materials, autos and capital goods.
U.S. exports increased by +3.3% to $142.7 billion in December due to stronger foreign demand for capital goods and industrial supplies & materials. This was the highest monthly level of exports since March 2007. In addition, December was the eighth consecutive month that exports have increased. Most major categories of exports experienced growth in December, though exports of foods, feeds and beverages remained virtually flat. The strengthening in exports continued to reflect the improvement in the Asian economies along with a more modest recovery in the rest of the world.
The U.S bilateral trade deficit with China contracted by -10.3% in December to $18.1 billion from $20.2 billion in November, though it continued to be the largest trade deficit with any country. The monthly trade deficit with China has fallen significantly from its record level of $28 billion in October 2008. Imports from China were $26.5 billion in December, while exports were $8.4 billion (a record high). U.S. trade deficits with Canada and Mexico widened in December, while the deficits with Japan and the European Union declined. (Ferdinando Guerra)
PR: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2009/pdf/trad1209.pdf
Wednesday, February 17, 2010: LAEDC 2010-2011 Economic Forecast
7:00 a.m. Breakfast and Networking. 8:00 a.m. -10:30 a.m. Program. At the Los Angeles Marriott Downtown.
The 2010-2011 LAEDC Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook will present an in-depth look at the industries that are affecting us including the housing market, regional economy and national economic outlook. Join us for an informative session by California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, Mayor Frank Quintero of City of Glendale, California Association of Realtors Deputy Chief Economist Dr. Robert Kleinhenz, and LAEDC economists Jack Kyser and Dr. Nancy D. Sidhu.
March 3-5, 2010: CALED and IEDC: Economic Development Credit Analysis
The Westin Bonaventure (404 South Figueroa Street), Los Angeles. Early bird registration (by Jan 20th): $525. Non-IEDC Member Rate: $625.
This hands-on course presents an overview of business financing tools and available private financing options, as well as how the public sector can complement bank financing. Learn how to read financial reports, financial statements, balance sheets and profit and loss statements. Course participants will perform credit analysis by determining how well a company buys and sells to make a profit. Also, they will learn how to determine if the company pays its suppliers on time, collects its receivables, and controls costs to make a profit. Enroll now to understand the basics of structuring deals for small businesses that often combine public and private sector financing programs.
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