e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The U.S. Census Bureau just released retail e-commerce figures for 4th quarter 2009, and they were quite interesting. According to the Bureau's preliminary estimate, total retail e-commerce sales were $35.9 billion last quarter (seasonally adjusted), up by +4.5% from $34.3 billion in the 3rd quarter and a thumping +14.4% over 4th quarter 2008.
Meanwhile, total retail sales--including in-store as well as online sales--were estimated at $942.4 billion last quarter, up by +2.1% over the 3rd quarter and by +2.2% over 4th quarter 2008. Thus, the e-commerce share of retail sales (seasonally adjusted) rose from 3.4% a year ago to 3.8% in 4th quarter 2009.
The 4th quarter increase in e-share should be a familiar pattern by now. Five years ago, in 4th quarter 2004, retail sales totaled $890.7 billion, of which e-commerce sales accounted for $19.1 billion, giving e-commerce a 2.1% share of the total. Ten years ago, in 4th quarter 1999, retail sales totaled $724.7 billion, of which e-commerce sales accounted for $4.6 billion, giving e-commerce a share of just 0.6%. E-commerce has certainly come a long way. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: www.census.gov
Total housing starts increased by +2.8% in January to 591,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR). This rise followed a small decline of -0.7% in December. At 484,000 units SAAR, construction of single-family homes in January was +1.5% above the December rate but +36% above the lows of January-February, 2008 (at 357,000 units). In the volatile multi-family sector, starts grew by +9.2% in January to 107,000 units, the third consecutive monthly increase since October (when only 53,000 units were started).
Activity in the U.S. homebuilding industry plunged for three years and appeared to reach bottom in the second half of 2009. Total housing starts in January were still -72% below the cycle peak of 2.12 million units registered in first quarter 2006. Single-family and multi-family starts both also were down by -72% over this period.
The dynamics of the housing industry are changing, though slowly. (1) Inventories of unsold newly built single-family homes have declined markedly—by -55% from the market peak through December 2009—and the oversupply of unsold new homes is coming down, with an 8.1 months supply available for sale at yearend 2009. (2a) Supported by massive secondary market mortgage purchases by the Federal Reserve, rates on qualifying (fixed-rate) mortgages continue to be relatively low, which helps would-be homebuyers with good credit records. (2b) A federal tax credit is available through April 2010 for first-time homebuyers. (3) Conditions in the single-family detached homebuilding sector have stabilized, at least for now. The Fed's purchase program is supposed to end March 31, 2010, and federal tax credits expire a month later. What happens to rates then is not yet clear. (4) Meanwhile, the multifamily sector's troubles have multiplied. Constrained by the lack of finance and rising vacancies (as tenants lose their jobs), the number of new projects is extremely low, and the multi-family sector is still at risk. Homebuilding is not completely out of the woods just yet. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
The overall Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) edged up by +0.2% last month after ticking up by +0.1% in December. Over the twelve months ending January 2010, headline consumer inflation increased by +2.6%.
The Core U.S. Consumer Price Index (all items less food and energy) fell by -0.1% in January, reversing December’s advance of +0.1%. Over the past year, core CPI rose by +1.6%. The core index posted a broad mix of restrained price movements that resulted in January’s slight decline. The index for shelter fell by -0.5% with most of that decline coming from a fall in prices for lodging away from home (-2.1%). Prices rose for used cars and trucks (+1.5%) but fell for new vehicles (-0.5%)
Apparel prices also lost ground, declining by -0.1%, while medical care continued its steady upward climb, increasing by +0.5% last month. Prices for recreation dropped by -0.1%. The index for education rose by +0.3% and prices for communication followed just behind, posting an increase of +0.2%. Within the communication index, however, prices for personal computers fell by -0.6%. The index for other goods and services edged up by +0.1% due to an increase in tobacco and smoking products (+0.4%) that offset declines in other subcategories of this index.
Taking the broad view, over the twelve months ending January 2010:
Outside the core CPI components, the energy index was up by +2.8% in January, its ninth consecutive increase. Compared to one year ago, the energy index was up by +19.1%. The gasoline index rose by +4.4 last month and by +51.3% over the year. The index for household energy was up a scant +0.5% in January and was down by -3.5% for the year.
The food and beverage index rose by +0.2% last month after rising by the same amount in December. Within the food index, prices for food at home (groceries) increased by +0.4%. Prices for dairy products were up by +2.1%. Prices for fruits and vegetables advanced by +1.3% while the index for cereals and bakery goods fell by -0.3%. The index for food away from home barely budged, up by +0.1%. From January 2009 to January 2010, prices for food at home declined by -2.0% while the index for food away from home increased by +1.6%.
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index increased by +0.4% in January after declining by -0.3% in December. Last month, higher prices for transportation were mostly responsible for pushing up the index. Over the past year, the regional all-items index increased by +1.8% as the result of higher energy prices. The energy index has risen by +32.0% since January 2009. [Note: local consumer price index data are not seasonally adjusted]
During the month of January, the local transportation index rose by 1.5% after slipping by -0.2% in December. Gasoline prices increased by +3.7% and were up by +52.9% over the year. Since January 2009, transportation prices advanced by +13.1%. The transportation index comprises just over 16% of the Los Angeles CPI all-items index.
Food and beverage prices in the Los Angeles area advanced by +1.0% last month after edging up by -0.3% in December. Over the past 12 months, prices for food and beverages declined by -0.1%. The food at home index, which measures grocery prices, rose by +1.9% in January, but was down by -1.9% over the year.
The housing index (47% of the Los Angeles Area’s all-items index) inched up by +0.1% last month, and was down by -0.9% compared with 12 months ago. Apparel prices remained unchanged for the month, but increased by +2.0% over the year. Medical care prices rose by +0.4% in January and increased by +3.1% on a year-over basis. (Kimberly Ritter)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.pdf
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose more than expected in January at all three levels: crude goods, intermediate goods and finished goods.
The price index for crude materials increased across the board last month, but was primarily driven by a +16.8% jump in prices for crude energy materials, which accounted for three-quarters of the increase. (In December, crude energy prices dipped by -2.8%). About two-thirds of January’s increase in energy prices was attributable to higher natural gas prices (+25.5%), but higher petroleum prices (+15.2%) also made a significant contribution. Prices in the food and nonfood less energy (core) indices also rose. The foodstuffs index rose by +3.2% after increasing by +3.8% during the previous month. Prices for slaughter hogs (+11.8%) and slaughter turkeys (+12.7%) surged, while prices for corn and soybeans fell by -6.0% and -5.2% respectively. Prices rose for almost all items in the core index (up by +6.6%) with the most notable gains posted by iron and steel scrap (+17.3%) and copper base scrap (+9.7%).
Prices for intermediate materials moved up by +1.7% in January after ticking up by +0.5% in December. The energy goods index rose by +0.5% after rising by +0.2% during the previous month. Meanwhile, prices for intermediate foodstuffs slipped by -0.3% in January following an increase of +1.8% in December. Over the year, intermediate food prices rose by +1.6%. The intermediate core index was up by +0.5% in January, the same increase as in December.
In the finished goods category, the index for energy goods jumped by +5.1% after falling by -0.4% in December. Gasoline prices rose sharply - climbing by +11.5% last month and accounting for two-thirds of the increase in energy prices. The index for finished foods rose at a more moderate pace (+0.4%). Prices for fresh fruits and melons advanced by +19.6% but were offset by a retreat in prices for fresh and dry vegetables (-12.1%). The core index for finished goods rose by just +0.3%.
Effective with this PPI release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has included data for one newly added industry: Internet publishing and web search portals (up in January by +0.1 from December 2009). The BLS periodically updates the sample of producers providing data for the PPI to reflect current market conditions and the changes in the structure, technology and product mix of the industries it samples. (Kimberly Ritter)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
Home sales in Southern California increased again in January, while the average median price in the six-county region rose by +8.6% from a year earlier to $271,500. Last month marked the second consecutive month in which the median price increased on a year-over basis. These were the first two months to record an increase since August 2007. At their worst, in late 2008 through early 2009, the year-over price declines ranged from -30.0% to -40.0%. (Compared to December, however, the regional median price fell by -6.1%) Orange County posted the strongest gain – the median price jumped by +14.9%. Following was San Diego County (+8.9%), Los Angeles County (+8.3%) and Ventura County (+7.5%). The Inland Empire with its high number of distressed properties, continued to lag. In Riverside County, prices remained unchanged but in San Bernardino County, the median price fell by -7.4% last month after falling by -14.4% in December.
A total of 15,361 new and resale homes were sold in the SoCal region last month, inching up by +0.9% from a year ago. Compared with December, sales were down by -31.2%, but it is normal for home sales to fall between December-January.
More troublesome was a shift back to a greater proportion of transactions involving distressed homes in the Inland Empire. At the same time, sales in more expensive areas lost some of the traction that had been building over the last few months. Foreclosures accounted for 42.1% of existing home sales last month, up from December’s 39.6%. Last month’s uptick reversed a steady decline in the percentage of foreclosure sales after peaking in February 2009 at 56.7%. The larger share of foreclosure sales boosted the sales of homes priced under $300,000 to 55% of all transactions while sales of homes priced greater than $500,000 fell to 18.5% (down from 20.6% in December).
What these numbers convey is a sense of just how unsettled the Southern California housing market remains. There are still no signs of life in the jumbo mortgage market and until there are, there won’t be much fuel to drive activity in higher priced coastal areas. Prices appear to have bottomed out in the coastal areas, but inland is another story. While the credit markets are showing some improvement, they are still a long way from functioning normally. This spring will also see the end of the first time buyer tax credit (April) and the termination of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage back securities. The winding down of these programs adds another layer of uncertainty to an already troubled market. It is widely expected the Fed’s actions will result in higher mortgage interest rates just as buyer interest begins to wane. (Kimberly Ritter)
|
Sales Volume |
Median Price |
||||
County |
Jan 2009 |
Jan 2010 |
%Change |
Jan 2009 |
Jan 2010 |
%Change |
Los Angeles |
4,532 |
5,228 |
15.4% |
$300,000 |
$325,000 |
8.3% |
Orange |
1,806 |
1,867 |
3.4% |
$370,000 |
$425,000 |
14.9% |
Riverside |
3,320 |
3,162 |
-4.8% |
$195,000 |
$195,000 |
0.0% |
San Bernardino |
2,532 |
2,252 |
-11.1% |
$162,000 |
$150,000 |
-7.4% |
San Diego |
2,459 |
2,322 |
-5.6% |
$280,000 |
$305,000 |
8.9% |
Ventura |
578 |
530 |
-8.3% |
$335,000 |
$360,000 |
7.5% |
Southern California |
15,227 |
15,361 |
0.9% |
$250,000 |
$271,500 |
8.6% |
Source: Data Quick News
The December 2009 hotel numbers from PKF Consulting were interesting. In Los Angeles County, the occupancy rate was 59.4%, up a smidge from 58.6% a year ago. However, the average daily room rate (ADR) dropped by -8.8% to $132.25. The highest occupancy rate in the County during December (68.0%) was found in the I-5 Corridor/Whittier market, which is a business market. The highest ADR during December was Beverly Hill’s $353.81. For the full year 2009, the County’s occupancy rate was 68.4% compared with 74.8% in 2008. The 2009 ADR came in at $140.82, down by -12.6% from 2008.
In Orange County, the December hotel occupancy rate was 60.4%, also up from 59.4% a year ago. The ADR declined by -9.3% to $124.20. The highest occupancy rate in the County during December was found in Anaheim, at 68.7%. The highest ADR in the County was South Orange County’s $169.41, which was down by a painful -14.8% over the year. For the year 2009, the County’s hotel occupancy rate was 67.2% compared with 72.2% in 2008. The ADR declined by -12.6% to $135.49.
San Diego County’s December hotel occupancy rate was 52.0% compared with 51.8% last year. The ADR fell by -10.5% to $122.80. For the year 2009, the County’s occupancy rate was 67.8% compared with 73.7% in 2008. The ADR for 2009 was $152.60, down by -13.3% from 2008.
Note: the hotel industry in Los Angeles County saw a major change in February 2010, with the opening of a W Hotel in Hollywood and the opening of the J.W. Marriott/Ritz Carlton combo (1,001 rooms in total) at L.A. Live, next to the Convention Center. (Jack Kyser)
The total number of containers handled in January at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach rose by +1.6 percent on a year-to-year basis (the second consecutive month of year-to-year increases), to 1,001,774 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). The two straight months of improvement are encouraging as the total number of containers handled at Los Angeles and Long Beach (including empties) deteriorated by -17.6 percent in 2009 when compared to 2008. This was the seventh consecutive month of TEU totals above one million units after seven months of TEU totals below that mark.
The Port of Long Beach experienced a gain in trade volumes, as loaded containers grew by +7.4 percent in January from the same month last year. However, at the Port of Los Angeles, total loaded containers were down by -2.4 percent on a year-to-year basis.
Loaded inbound traffic at the Port of Long Beach climbed by +8.6 percent from January 2009 to January 2010, rising from 200,588 TEUs to 217,925 TEUs (excluding empties). The Port of Los Angeles reported a decline in the total number of inbound loaded containers, to 302,693 TEUs in January 2010 compared with 320,379 TEUs in January 2009, a contraction of -5.5 percent.
The Port of Long Beach reported a total of 113,183 outbound TEUs (excluding empties) in the month of January, an increase from 88,510 TEUs in January 2009. The Port of Los Angeles saw a total of 270,276 outbound TEUs for the month of January, a rise of +0.4 percent from January 2009.
The Port of Oakland reported that its total inbound container traffic strengthened from a year earlier, while outbound container traffic dropped. The total number of inbound TEUs was 72,726 in January (68,973 in January 2009), while the total number of outbound TEUs came in at 84,288 (88,969 in January 2009). Over the year, Oakland’s total TEU count was just slightly down by -0.6 percent. (Ferdinando Guerra)
PR:http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp,http://www.polb.com/
http://www.portofoakland.com/
March 3-5, 2010: CALED and IEDC: Economic Development Credit Analysis
The Westin Bonaventure (404 South Figueroa Street), Los Angeles. Early bird registration (by Jan 20th): $525. Non-IEDC Member Rate: $625.
This hands-on course presents an overview of business financing tools and available private financing options, as well as how the public sector can complement bank financing. Learn how to read financial reports, financial statements, balance sheets and profit and loss statements. Course participants will perform credit analysis by determining how well a company buys and sells to make a profit. Also, they will learn how to determine if the company pays its suppliers on time, collects its receivables, and controls costs to make a profit. Enroll now to understand the basics of structuring deals for small businesses that often combine public and private sector financing programs.
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