e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]Figures released last week by the California Employment Development Department (EDD) showed California’s unemployment rate remained unchanged in February. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February was 12.5 percent. On a year-to-year basis, the unemployment rate has increased by +2.3 percentage points.
The U.S. unemployment rate also remained unchanged at 9.7 percent in February. Thus, joblessness in California continued to be higher than the nation, the trend since September 2008. Three other states have higher unemployment rates than California: Michigan (14.1%), Nevada (13.2%) and Rhode Island (12.7%). Only Nevada saw its unemployment rate rise in February.
Within the five-county Southern California area, all of the counties experienced increases in non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates during February compared to a year earlier. In addition, all of the counties had double-digit unemployment rates in February with the exception of Orange County. In Orange County, the unadjusted unemployment rate moved upward from 7.9 percent in February 2009 to 9.7 percent in February 2010. The highest jobless rates were in the Inland Empire. The San Bernardino County unemployment rate increased from 12.0 percent a year earlier to 14.9 percent. Riverside County’s unemployment rate also rose on a year-to-year basis, moving from 12.7 percent to 14.4 percent in February.
Los Angeles County’s February rate (non-seasonally adjusted) moved upward from 10.8 percent a year ago to 12.3 percent. Ventura County’s February rate increased from 9.0 percent a year earlier to 11.1 percent. San Diego County’s rate rose from 8.7 percent to 10.6 percent over the past year. (Ferdinando Guerra)
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate201003a.pdf
After some delay in the release of the revised employment numbers for some of California’s metro areas, we are almost back on schedule with the release of the February numbers. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the state declined by -20,400 jobs from January to February, after a December to January increase of +25,500 jobs. Over the year, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the state fell by -4.1% or by -586,400 jobs. While high levels of unemployment continue in the state, the year-to-year job losses are moderating.
Looking at the unadjusted detail for the state, the largest losses over the year came in construction (-113,900 jobs), manufacturing (-95,500 jobs), and retailing (-52,600 jobs). Adding jobs were (private) education (+12,200 jobs), and health services (+9,000 jobs).
Nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted, in Los Angeles County in February was up by +5,500 jobs over January. However, over the year, the County saw a decline of -3.8% or -147,300 nonfarm jobs. The unadjusted industry detail was rather interesting. The largest losses over the year came in manufacturing (-30,100 jobs), construction (-23,000 jobs), and government (-18,800 jobs). Increases were recorded in (private) education (+7,700 jobs), health services (+5,400 jobs), and information (+4,900 jobs). The latter got a boost from motion picture & sound recording industries, which recorded an increase of +12,100 jobs over the year to February (and saw its January gain revised up to +11,800 jobs).
Orange County’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment rose by +5,200 jobs from January to February. Over the year, the employment count declined by -3.7% or by -52,100 jobs. Looking at the unadjusted industry detail, the largest losses over the year came in construction (-14,400 jobs), manufacturing (-11,000 jobs), and government (-6,100 jobs). (Private) education gained +100 jobs over the year, but health services lost -100. A big surprise was an increase of +4,200 jobs in leisure & hospitality services.
The Riverside-San Bernardino area’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment inched up by +2,100 jobs from January to February. However, over the year, the employment count dropped by -5.0% or by -58,500 jobs. Looking at the unadjusted industry detail, over the year the largest losses came in construction (-13,000 jobs), manufacturing (-8,500 jobs), and retailing (-7,600 jobs). The only gain came in health services, which was up by +1,400 jobs.
San Diego County’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment broke trend, declining by -1,900 jobs from January to February. Over the year, employment declined by -3.6% or by -45,400 jobs. The unadjusted detail revealed that the largest employment losses over the year came in manufacturing (-9,200 jobs), construction (-7,700 jobs), and retailing and professional business services, which each lost -5,000 jobs. Gains were found in health services (+1,800 jobs) and (private) education (+200 jobs).
Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in Ventura County in February fell by -800 jobs from January. Over the year, employment declined by -4.2% or by -11,800 jobs. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest losses over the year came in manufacturing (-2,600 jobs), construction (-2,100 jobs), and retailing (-1,700 jobs). Education and health services combined added +300 jobs over the year.
The February employment numbers from the Bay Area weren’t quite as positive. The Oakland metro area’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment declined by -4,500 jobs from January, and was down over the year by -5.1% or by -50,200 jobs. In the San Francisco metro area, nonfarm employment fell by -1,300 jobs from January to February. Over the year, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment declined by -4.6% or by -44,200 jobs. Nonfarm employment in the San Jose metro area held steady from January to February (it was up by all of +100 jobs). Over the year, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the area fell by -4.1% or by -36,000 jobs. (Jack Kyser)
PR: http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1003
February turned out to be a pretty good month in some parts of the retail world though not all. Total U.S. retail and food service sales increased by +0.3% last month. Sales had previously edged up by +0.1% in January after slipping by -0.2% in December. Eleven sectors (out of 14) registered higher sales in February. The biggest increases over the month were reported by: electronics & appliance stores (rising by +3.7%); miscellaneous store retailers (+2.5%); followed by food & beverage stores (+1.3%); sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (+1.2%); department stores (+1.1%); and other general merchandise stores (excluding department stores, +1.0%). [All figures in this paragraph are seasonally adjusted.]
Nonstore retailers reported no change in sales over the month. The two categories reporting lower sales in February were: motor vehicle & parts dealers (-2.0% over the month); and health & personal care stores (-0.7%).
Comparing January-February 2010 sales with the same months last year gives a somewhat more sober perspective. [All figures in this paragraph are not seasonally adjusted.] Total retail and food service sales were up by +3.4% compared with the first two months of 2009. The details by store type were more mixed than February’s month-over figures, as eight store types reported higher sales so far this year while six store types reported lower sales. Sectors that gained over the year were led by: gasoline stations (up by +26.4%, due to lower prices early in 2009); nonstore retailers (+11.7%); and other general merchandise stores (excluding department stores, +4.8%). Store types reporting lower sales included three tied to housing construction and home furnishings: building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-6.9% over the year so far); electronics & appliance stores (-3.3%); and furniture & home furnishings stores (also -3.3%).
This report was very encouraging, as February's results occurred despite a spate of bad weather back east. Smoothing out the recent month-to-month variations, total retail & food service sales were up by +1.7% in the December-February period compared with the previous three months (September-November). Eleven sectors registered sales gains in this comparison, while three reported lower sales. The laggards were each down by less than -1.0% over the three-month period, suggesting they too could turn up in the near future. Let's hope so! (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The California Association of Realtors (CAR) recently released their February 2010 report for existing home sales and prices in California. Statewide, sales of existing single-family homes fell by -11.7% compared with February 2009 to 528,930 units (seasonally adjusted, annualized rate). Meanwhile, the median price increased by +14.1% to $279,840. On a month-over basis, sales decreased by -2.2% and the median price fell by -2.4%.
In Los Angeles County, unit sales during February held steady over the year, while the median price rose by +6.0% to $327,020. In Orange County, unit sales advanced by +5.2% during February. The median price also increased, rising by +11.3% over the year to $482,700. Compared with January, the median price in Los Angeles County slipped by -1.6% while in Orange County, the median price nudged up by +0.4%.
In the Riverside-San Bernardino area, unit sales experienced another sharp drop – falling by -24.1% compared with February 2009 (following declines of -26.2% in January and -19.3% in December) and by -6.5% for the month. However, the area’s median price rose by +4.5% over the year to $182,200.
Unit sales in San Diego County were down by -4.3% in February even as the median price rose by +11.8% to $372,100. On a month-over basis, sales were up by +10.2% and the median price edged up by +1.4%. Ventura County posted a decline in unit sales (-7.6% over the year) in February, but the median price jumped by +25.6% to $451,720.
In the San Francisco Bay area, unit sales increased by +3.8% over the year (after falling at the same rate in January) and were up by +2.0% for the month. The area’s median price climbed by +29.8% to $517,920.
In February, sales of distressed properties continued to drive the market but to a lesser extent than a year ago as supply lagged demand at the lower end of the market. Last month, the supply of homes priced below $300,000 was only 3.9 months compared with a 15 month supply of homes priced at $1 million or higher.
The volume of sales slowed from the unusually strong levels seen last year, but remained above 500,000 units statewide for the 18th consecutive month. Although the number of sales transactions fell, turnover increased as the average number of days it took to sell a single-family home fell to 41.2 days in February compared with 51.4 days a year ago.
The CAR reported that the unsold inventory index for all types of homes fell to 6.3 months in February, compared with 7.1 months (revised) at this time last year. (Kimberly Ritter)
PR: http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/febsalesprice/
The total number of housing permits issued in California during February leapt by +40.2% to 46,000 units from 32,800 units a year earlier (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR). Single-family home permits were up by +31.1% to 24,000 units and multi-family permits increased by +51.7% to 22,000 units. Over the month, permits for single-family homes fell by -20.3% while the number of multi-family permits rose by +49.7%.
In Los Angeles County, 641 permits were issued in February compared with 759 permits posted a year ago (-15.5%). Permits for single-family homes rose by +1.3% to 159 units, while multi-family permits tumbled by -19.9% to 482 (year-over-year). Year-to-date, the total number of housing permits issued was down by -23.0%. During the first two months of 2010, single-family permits were still up by +4.8% while multi-family permits plunged by -31.7%. (Note: data at the county level are not seasonally adjusted)
Residential construction in Orange County made significant gains last month compared to February 2009. A total of 198 permits were issued during the month bringing the year-to-date total to 304 units. The YTD total represented an increase of +93.6% compared with the same period last year. Permits for single-family homes rose by +37.5% to 85 units for the month and 165 YTD. The tally for the county’s beleaguered multi-family sector was 113 units (139 YTD), an increase of +274.7% for the first two months of 2010 over last year.
In the Inland Empire, housing permits were up by +38.7% to 676 units in February (1,182 YTD). Single family housing accounted for 70% of the total last month – 475 units compared with 201 multi-family units. For the year, single-family permits shot up by +105.1%, while permits for multi-family residences slumped by -29.5%.
The February permit count in Ventura County was just six units (all single-family). Two months into 2010, Ventura residential construction was down by -40.7%. Only 35 permits have been issued compared with 59 last year during the same period. Moving south to San Diego, things looked decidedly better. The total number of permits issued last month was 257 compared with just 86 in February a year ago. There were 171 single-family homes permitted and 86 multi-family residences. Year-to-date, total residential permit activity in San Diego increased by +213.3%.
The results in the Bay Area were more uniformly positive in February. The San Francisco metro area, which had been lagging behind its neighbors, posted 38 permits for the month, bringing the current year total to 56 (+75.0%). In the Oakland metro area a total of 433 permits were issued, or 564 for the year to date (+49.6%). In the San Jose area, total permits for the year to date surged by +226.9% to 170 units (with 101 issued in February).
Note: New home building activity in California was at its lowest level in early 2009. Only 4,432 new housing permits were issued for the state during Jan/Feb last year. While activity has improved this year, permits in California were still well below the same months in 2008 and 2007. For the first two months of 2010, the total number of permits recorded in California was 6,481, which was -44.0% less than the same period in 2008 when 11,580 permits were recorded, and -66.8% less than in 2007 when 19,543 permits were posted.
(Kimberly Ritter)
The Construction Industry Research Board recently released their February report on nonresidential construction activity in California and its counties, and the news continued to be mixed. In Los Angeles County, the two-month permit total for industrial was up by +33.7% over the comparable 2009 period (but only to $1.6 million), while $24.1 million in hotel permits were issued during the month, versus none last year. The other two categories were well down; office by -76.1% and retail by -66.6%.
The numbers for Orange County were quite mixed, with little new activity in industrial and office permits in February. Some permits were issued in January, so the two month total is up over last year when no permits were issued. No hotel permits have been issued so far in 2010, while retail permit values were down by -21.5% from the two month period last year.
In Riverside County during the first two months of the year, no permits for industrial buildings or hotels were issued. Retail permits were up by +6.5% over last year. A permit for a $19.2 million medical office building was issued in February, so the County’s two-month total is well ahead of last year, when only $1.6 million in permits had been issued.
Things were really unusual in San Bernardino County through the first two months of 2010. No permits have been issued for office, retail or hotels. However, there was a little life in industrial, with $13.8 million in permits issued so far versus none last year.
Things were livelier in San Diego County to date in 2010. Permit values for office and retail were up by +201.3% and +182.6%, respectively. Industrial lagged by -50.3%, while no hotel permits have been issued so far in 2010.
In Ventura County through two months of 2010, no industrial or hotel permits have been issued. In the office sector, $4.0 million in permits were issued in February compared with none last year. Retail permit values for the two-month period were down by -72.2% over the year.
In the 9-county Bay area, industrial building permit values for the first two months of the year were up by +79.8%. Office permits really took off, with $72.4 million in valuation compared with just $7.7 million in 2009. Retail permits, however, were down by -72.3% from 2009 to 2010. (Jack Kyser)
April 19-20, 2010: USC Marshall School of Business: Asia/Pacific Business Outlook 2010
USC - Davidson Conference Center (on Campus), 3415 S. Figueroa St., Los Angeles, CA
As the world economies slowly rebound from the financial crisis in 2010, Asian economic growth leads the globe. Learn how your firm can benefit from Asia’s surge. Now in its 23rd year, APBO is North America’s premier event for business leaders who want to expand their trade and investment in Asia/Pacific. APBO features 60 concurrent sessions on 15 Asia/Pacific economies. Build your international business network through APBO’s unprecedented access to 60 business experts with on-the-ground knowledge and experience.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010: International Trade Outlook: L.A. County's Global Economic Ties
Breakfast & Networking: 8:00 a.m. - 9:00 a.m. Program: 9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. At Hilton Long Beach & Executive Meeting Center, Catalina Ballroom (701 West Ocean Boulevard).
Los Angeles County has one of the world’s largest and most dynamic economies, thanks in part to its strong economic ties with nations from around the globe. In the first of an upcoming series of Key Country reports, the Kyser Center for Economic Research will release a special report on China, L.A. County’s largest trading partner. The report which will feature trade connections between China and L.A. County, investments that local companies have made in China, the educational and cultural ties between the two regions, and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Additionally, the LAEDC will present its annual International Trade Trends & Impacts report highlighting the trade activity for the Southern California 5-county region.
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