e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]Figures released last week by the California Employment Development Department (EDD) showed California’s unemployment rate increased in March. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March was 12.6 percent and the February rate was 12.5 percent. On a year-to-year basis, the unemployment rate has increased by +2.0 percentage points.
The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged in March at 9.7 percent. Thus, joblessness in California continued to be higher than the nation, the trend since September 2008. Only two other states have higher unemployment rates than California: Michigan (14.1%) and Nevada (13.4%). Both California and Nevada saw their unemployment rates rise in March.
Within the five-county Southern California area, all of the counties experienced increases in non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates during March. In addition, all of the counties had double-digit unemployment rates in March. The San Bernardino County unemployment rate increased from 12.3 percent a year earlier to 14.8 percent. Riverside County’s unemployment rate also rose on a year-to-year basis, moving from 12.2 percent to 15.1 percent in March. Los Angeles County’s March rate moved upward from 11.0 percent a year ago to 12.3 percent. Ventura County’s January rate increased from 9.2 percent a year earlier to 11.2 percent.
In Orange County, the unadjusted unemployment rate moved upward from 8.3 percent in March 2009 to 10.1 percent in March 2010. San Diego County’s rate rose from 9.0 percent to 11.0 percent over the past year. (Ferdinando Guerra)
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate201004.pdf
While many continue to focus on unemployment rates (which are rather grim), some encouraging signs are appearing in the employment numbers just released by the California Employment Development Department. Seasonally-adjusted, total nonfarm employment in California has increased month-to-month each month in 2010. However, in March nonfarm employment was still down over the year by -458,400 jobs or by -3.2%. But this should be compared with the Q4, 2009 employment loss of -887,000 nonfarm jobs.
Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest losses over the year came in: construction (-107,200 jobs), manufacturing (-70,700 jobs), and government (-43,800 jobs). Increases over the year were found in (private) education (+19,100 jobs), and health services (+7,900 jobs). Also, employment services (which includes temporary help) added jobs over the year, with March up by +14,700 jobs.
In Los Angeles County, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment declined from February to March by -9,400 jobs. However, this came after a revised January to February increase of +20,700 jobs. Over the year, the County’s nonfarm employment dropped by -121,100 jobs, or by -3.1%. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest losses over the year were found in manufacturing (-24,500 jobs), construction (-22,700 jobs), and government (-21,600 jobs). Gains over the year came in information (+17,400 jobs), (private) education (+5,700 jobs), and health services (+3,800 jobs). The increase in information was sparked in part by motion picture & sound recording industries, which rose by +10,300 jobs. Even better, the February increase was revised up to +18,200 jobs. Both months reflected increases in commercial production, TV pilots plus support provided by the state’s film incentive program.
Orange County’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased from February to March by +1,900 jobs, the third such increase in a row. Over the year, the County’s nonfarm job count declined by -39,900 jobs or by -2.9%. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest declines over the year came in: construction (-14,300 jobs), manufacturing (-7,800 jobs), and government (-5,100 jobs). Increases were recorded in health services (+500 jobs), and leisure & hospitality services (+6,000 jobs). Remember, Easter 2010 was early, and +3,500 of the latter job increase came in food service & drinking places.
The Riverside-San Bernardino area posted a +1,200 job gain in seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment from February to March. Over the year, the area saw a loss of -49,700 jobs or a decline of -4.3%. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest losses over the year came in: construction (-12,500 jobs), leisure & hospitality services (-9,000 jobs), and manufacturing (-7,100 jobs). The sole gain came in health services (+1,800 jobs).
San Diego County’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased from February to March by +600 jobs. Small, but it was the third such increase in a row. Over the year, the County saw nonfarm employment fall by -34,300 jobs or by -2.7%. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest declines came in manufacturing (-7,900 jobs), construction (-7,400 jobs), and professional & scientific services (-4,800 jobs). Gains were recorded in health services (+1,900 jobs), (private) education (+300 jobs), and administrative services (+300 jobs). In the latter sector, employment services was up over the year by +2,100 jobs.
Ventura County saw seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increase from February to March by +400 jobs. Over the year total nonfarm employment fell by -8,800 jobs or by -3.2%. The largest losses on an unadjusted basis were found in construction (-2,200 jobs), and manufacturing (-2,100 jobs). Increases came in education & health services (+600 jobs) and other services (+100 jobs), while employment services were up over the year by +700 jobs.
In the Bay Area, the picture was a little more mixed. The Oakland metro area saw seasonally adjusted nonfarm decline from February to March by -1,100 jobs. Over the year, there was a decline of -39,900 jobs or -4.1%. In the San Francisco metro area, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased from February to March by +300 jobs, while over the year total nonfarm employment dropped by -39,200 jobs or by -4.1%. Things were more positive in the San Jose metro area, where seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment has increased for three months in a row, with a February-to-March gain of +600 jobs. Over the year, total nonfarm employment declined by -25,900 jobs or by -3.0%. (Jack Kyser)
Source: http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1003
March was a good month in most parts of the retail world. Total U.S. retail and food service sales increased by a solid +1.6% last month. Sales had previously risen by +0.5% in both February and January. Twelve sectors (out of 14) registered higher sales in March. The biggest increases over the month were reported by: motor vehicle & parts dealers (rising by +6.7%); building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (+3.1%); followed by clothing & accessories stores (+2.3% over the month); and furniture & home furnishings stores (+1.5%). The two categories reporting lower sales in March were: electronics & appliance stores (falling by -1.3% after a +3.1% jump in February); and gasoline stations (-0.4%). [All figures in this paragraph are seasonally adjusted.]
Comparing January-March 2010 sales with the same months last year gives a similar perspective. [All figures in this paragraph are not seasonally adjusted.] Total retail and food service sales were up by +5.8% compared with the first three months of 2009. The details by store type were tilted toward the positive just like the March month-over figures, as twelve store types reported higher sales so far this year while two store types reported lower sales. Sectors that gained over the year were led by: gasoline stations (up by +27.0%, due to lower prices early in 2009); nonstore retailers (mostly catalog and internet, +12.3%); motor vehicle & parts dealers (+7.7%); and other general merchandise stores (excluding department stores, +5.3%). Store types reporting lower sales included two tied to housing construction and home furnishings: building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-3.2% over the year so far); and electronics & appliance stores (-1.1%).
March clearly benefitted from February's weather-related results and from Easter 2010 coming earlier than usual. Smoothing out the recent month-to-month variations, total retail & food service sales were up by +1.9% in the January-March period compared with the previous three months (October-December). Again, twelve sectors registered sales gains in this comparison, while two reported lower sales. The laggards were down at most by -1.2% over the three-month period, suggesting they too could turn up in the near future. Let's hope so! (Nancy D. Sidhu)
Source: http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The State Board of Equalization (BOE) recently released data on taxable retail sales for the state and its counties in the first quarter of 2009, and the numbers were sobering indeed. The state saw sales decline by -18.2% over the year to $71.9 billion.
The BOE has been converting its business codes to NAICS, so comparisons of industry trends over the year is possible for only a few sectors. Motor vehicles & parts dealers saw sales plunge by -26.8%, while general merchandise stores saw first quarter 2009 sales drop by -14.5% over the year. Sales at food service and drinking places fell by a comparatively modest -4.0%.
Results for local metro areas were equally downbeat. Los Angeles County saw first quarter sales fall by -17.1% to $18.4 billion, while Orange County experienced a -17.9% decline to $7.2 billion. Riverside County saw taxable retail sales fall by -21.0% over the year to nearly $3.9 billion. San Bernardino County was close behind with a -20.4% decline to $3.8 billion.
San Diego County’s first quarter 2009 taxable sales dropped by -17.1% over the year to $6.4 billion. Ventura County had the distinction of being the “least worst” in Southern California with sales down by -16.5% to $1.6 billion. (Jack Kyser)
Source: http://www.boe.ca.gov/news/tsalescont09.htm
The Southern California housing market appears to be following the example of Aesop’s fabled tortoise. Last month, home sales and median prices continued to inch up at a slow but steady pace. Home sales in Southern California rose above prior year levels in March for the 21st consecutive month. Meanwhile, the average median price in the six-county region increased by +14.0% from a year earlier to $285,000. Last month marked the fourth month in a row in which the median price increased on a year-over basis. San Diego County posted the strongest gain in median price during March, rising by +15.8%, but was closely followed by Ventura County (+15.0%). Orange County posted a gain of +12.2% over the year and in Los Angeles County, the median price moved up by +9.7%. Even in the Inland Empire, things looked better in March. The median price in Riverside County rose by +5.9% and in San Bernardino County, the median price edged up by +1.3%. The last time San Bernardino showed positive year-over growth in median price was May 2007 (+0.9%).
A total of 20,476 new and resale home were sold in the SoCal region last month, rising by +5.0 from a year ago. Compared with February, sales volume jumped by +33.3%.
Although sales have been steadily increasing for almost two years, current levels are still -18% below historic averages. The market remained slanted toward low-price distress sales, but less so than in previous months. In March, foreclosures accounted for 38.4% of the resale market, which was down from 42.3% in February and down from 54.8% a year ago. At the other end of the market, high-end sales picked up a little last month. Transactions involving homes priced at $500,000 or more made up 19.4% of the region’s transactions compared with 18.5% in February and 14.9% in March 2009. Over the past five years, $500,000+ sales averaged 35% of monthly sales, while over the past 10 years they averaged 26% of sales. The market is still unbalanced and will not regain its footing until mortgage lending normalizes and qualified borrowers are able to obtain loans readily.
Buyers paying all cash accounted for 27.1% of March sales. Government-insured FHA loans (popular among first time borrowers) made up 38.6% of mortgages used to buy homes last month, while adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for just 4.8%. (Kimberly Ritter)
|
Sales Volume |
Median Price |
||||
County |
March 2009 |
March 2010 |
%Change |
March 2009 |
March 2010 |
%Change |
Los Angeles |
5,971 |
6,747 |
13.05 |
$300,000 |
$329,000 |
9.7% |
Orange |
2,433 |
2,652 |
9.0% |
$385,000 |
$432,000 |
12.2% |
Riverside |
4,409 |
4,156 |
-5.7% |
$187,000 |
$198,000 |
5.9% |
San Bernardino |
2,897 |
2,955 |
2.0% |
$150,000 |
$152,000 |
1.3% |
San Diego |
3,020 |
3,227 |
6.9% |
$285,000 |
$330,000 |
15.8% |
Ventura |
776 |
739 |
-4.8% |
$326,000 |
$375,000 |
15.0% |
Southern California |
19,506 |
20,476 |
5.0% |
$250,000 |
$285,000 |
14.0% |
Source: Data Quick News
The overall Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) ticked up by +0.1% in March after remaining flat in February. Over the twelve months ending March 2010, headline inflation increased by +2.3%.
The Core U.S. Consumer Price Index (all items less food and energy) remained unchanged in March after edging up by just +0.1% in February. Over the past year, core CPI rose by +1.1%, the smallest increase since January 2004. The weakness in the core index stems largely from a decline in the shelter index, which has fallen by -0.6% from twelve months ago. Elsewhere, apparel prices declined by -0.4% in March and by -0.4% over the year. Medical care was up by +0.3% last month and by +3.7% compared to the same time last year. The recreation index dipped by -0.1% last month, while prices for education rose by +0.6% and by +4.9% over the year. Prices for vehicles also rose. The new vehicle index edged up by +0.1% (+3.0% since March 2009), and used cars and trucks saw prices rise by +0.5% last month and by a remarkable +16.3% over the year.
Outside the core CPI components, the energy index was unchanged in March after falling by -0.5% in February. Over the year, the energy index jumped by +18.3%. The gasoline index declined for the second straight month, slipping by -0.8% after declining by -1.4% in February. Compared with last year, however, the gasoline index soared by +41.4%. The index for household energy increased by +1.3% due primarily to higher prices for electricity (+2.1%). The food and beverage index rose by +0.2% in March. Within the food index, prices for food at home (groceries) were up by +0.5%, the largest increase for this expenditure category since September 2008. The index for food away from home was unchanged in March after increasing every month since January 2003. Over the last twelve months the overall food index rose by +0.2%.
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index increased by +0.4% in March after remaining unchanged in February. Over the year, the regional all-items index advanced by +1.9% mainly due to higher energy prices. The energy index has risen by +30.1% since March 2009. [Note: local consumer price index data are not seasonally adjusted]
During the month of March, the local transportation index rose by +1.2% after slipping by -0.7% in February. Gasoline prices advanced by +3.7% and were up by +40.5% over the year. Since March 2009, transportation prices have climbed by +12.8%. The transportation index comprises just over 16% of the Los Angeles CPI all-items index.
Food and beverage prices in the Los Angeles area rose by +0.3% last month after falling by -0.5% last month. Over the past twelve months, prices for food and beverages declined by -0.2%. The housing index (47% of the Los Angeles area’s all-items index) was flat in March, but fell by -0.7% compared with twelve months ago. Apparel prices rose by +3.8% over the month and by +2.8% over the year. Medical care prices increased by +0.2% in March and by +3.1% on a year-over basis. (Kimberly Ritter)
Sources: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.pdf
The total number of containers handled in March at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach rose by +8.0 percent on a year-to-year basis to 973,024 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). This was the fourth consecutive month of year-to-year increases, an encouraging trend. In 2009, the total number of containers handled at the two ports (including empties) had deteriorated by -17.6 percent compared to 2008. The Port of Long Beach experienced the largest gain in trade volumes over the year, as total containers grew by +13.0 percent in March. The Port of Los Angeles also witnessed a gain in volumes as total containers were up by +4.5 percent on a year-to-year basis.
Loaded inbound traffic at the Port of Long Beach rose by +10.8 percent from March 2009 to March 2010, rising from 186,450 TEUs to 206,652 TEUs (excluding empties). The Port of Los Angeles reported a decline in the total number of inbound loaded containers, to 269,634 TEUs in March 2010 compared with 277,570 TEUs in March 2010, a drop of -2.9 percent.
The Port of Long Beach reported a total of 130,495 loaded outbound TEUs (excluding empties) in the month of March, an increase from 117,674 TEUs in March 2009 (+10.9%). The Port of Los Angeles saw a total of 161,817 loaded outbound TEUs for the month of March, a rise of +15.8 percent from March 2009.
The Port of Oakland reported that its total inbound and outbound container traffic both strengthened from a year earlier. The total number of inbound TEUs was 83,425 in March, while the total number of outbound TEUs came in at 103,100. Over the year, Oakland’s total TEU count was up by +10.7 percent. (Ferdinando Guerra)
Sources: http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp, http://www.polb.com/, http://www.portofoakland.com/
California maintained its position as the second largest state exporter in February, with total exports valued at $10.4 billion. However, exports in February were up by +13.7% over the year, the fourth consecutive year-to-year increase.
The top California export markets in February were Mexico, China, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. Exports to Mexico, California’s largest market, increased by +17.8% over the year. California’s fifth largest market, South Korea, witnessed the highest annual increase, a surge of +30.9% over the year to February. The state’s second largest market, China (including Hong Kong and Macau), experienced the second largest year-to-year increase, with a +19.0% rise in February. Exports to Japan and Canada weakened by -3.0% and -1.6%, respectively. From an industry standpoint, the top three product exports (ranked by dollar value) were computers & electronic products, machinery, and transportation equipment. Machinery overtook transportation equipment in February. (Ferdinando Guerra)
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit expanded to $39.7 billion in the month of February, from a revised $37.0 billion in January. The deficit increased by +7.4% over the month after declining the previous month. The most significant developments in February were that U.S. imports of televisions, toys, pharmaceuticals and clothing rose sharply (highest since October 2008). Refineries imported the smallest amount of crude oil in ten years. Meanwhile, exports also increased in February, albeit at a much lower pace.
U.S. imports increased by +1.7% in February to $182.9 billion. The $3.0 billion monthly rise in imports reflected the ongoing U.S. economic recovery, as demand for consumer goods and industrial supplies & materials witnessed the largest gains.
U.S. exports rose by +0.2% to $143.2 billion in February due increased foreign demand for U.S. made capital goods, autos & auto parts, and industrial supplies & materials. Most major categories of exports experienced increases with the exception of food, feeds & beverages and consumer goods.
The U.S bilateral trade deficit with China narrowed by -9.8% in February to $16.5 billion from $18.3 billion in January but continued to be the largest trade deficit with any country. The U.S. saw in February the lowest trade deficit with China since March 2009. Overall, the monthly trade deficit with China has fallen significantly from its record level of $28 billion in October 2008. Imports from China were $23.4 billion in February, while exports were $6.9 billion. U.S. trade deficits with Mexico, Japan and the European Union all widened in February, while the deficit with Canada declined. (Ferdinando Guerra)
Source: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2010/pdf/trad0210.pdf
Thursday, April 22, 2010: Earth Day Panel: How will Greenhouse Gas Regulations Impact Small Businesses in California?
11:30 – 1:30 p.m. at the Omni Hotel, 251 South Olive St., Los Angeles, CA; $45.00 LA NABE members, $65.00 for non-members; includes program and lunch.
The event will feature Jasmin Anwar, Ph.D., Western States Climate Economist, Union of Concerned Scientists and Gregory Freeman, Vice President Economic & Policy Consulting, LAEDC presenting their views on how AB 32 will impact small businesses in California and the State’s economy overall.
Thursday, April 22, 2010: CALED Recovery Summit: Here's the Money: Access tools and stimulus $$$ for recovery
9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Hilton Long Beach (701 W Ocean Blvd.). $125 Member. $145 Non-Member. $50 CALED 30th Anniversary Dinner - (April 21).
Many of you have shared the challenges that you are facing related to funding and support for your economic development priorities. In direct response to this urgent need CALED will hold a one-day summit focused on programs with funds to support economic development. Rest assured that the summit will deliver the networking, learning, and sharing opportunities that you have grown to expect of our conference. However, there will also be a strong focus on available funding and tools for economic development and job retention & creation. This is a critical juncture for many communities and economic development programs across California, and we have a line-up of knowledgeable speakers who will share their programs and funding availability with our attendees. Additional No Cost Functions: EDC - Creating a Sustainable EDC Model (April 21) and Revolving Loan Fund Operator's Facilitated Workshop (April 23).
Wednesday, May 12, 2010: International Trade Outlook: L.A. County's Global Economic Ties
Breakfast & Networking: 8:00 a.m. - 9:00 a.m. Program: 9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. At Hilton Long Beach & Executive Meeting Center, Catalina Ballroom (701 West Ocean Boulevard).
Los Angeles County has one of the world’s largest and most dynamic economies, thanks in part to its strong economic ties with nations from around the globe. In the first of an upcoming series of Key Country reports, the Kyser Center for Economic Research will release a special report on China, L.A. County’s largest trading partner. The report which will feature trade connections between China and L.A. County, investments that local companies have made in China, the educational and cultural ties between the two regions, and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Additionally, the LAEDC will present its annual International Trade Trends & Impacts report highlighting the trade activity for the Southern California 5-county region.
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