e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just released county-level employment data covering the fourth quarter of 2009 (4q2009). The information is somewhat dated, but it provides an interesting comparison of how different parts of the nation fared during the second year of the recession. For the nation as a whole, employment totaled 128.3 million workers in December, 2009. This represented a decline of -4.1% compared with December, 2008.
Three of the ten largest counties in the U.S.—measured by employment in December 2009—were in Southern California. Los Angeles County ranked #1; total employment was 3.93 million workers, down by -5.3% over the year. Orange County ranked #7; total employment was 1.36 million workers, down by -6.2%. San Diego County ranked #8; employment totaled 1.25 million workers (-4.9%).
These four counties followed Los Angeles County in the employment rankings:
Three counties completed the top ten employment rankings as of December 2009:
FYI, the December 2008 to December 2009 comparison was one of the toughest of the 2008-2009 recession (behind the September 2008-to-September 2009 period). According to BLS, only three of the largest 334 counties registered any growth in employment in the 12 months leading up to last December. They were: Arlington, VA, which grew by +0.5%; Bronx, NY and Kings, NY, both of which grew by +0.2%. Not much to cheer about here! (Nancy D. Sidhu)
Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewqtr.pdf
In May, consumer credit continued to contract, falling by -4.5% after dropping by -7.3% (revised) in April. By dollar volume, total consumer credit declined by -$9.1 billion over the month (seasonally adjusted) after falling by -$14.9 billion in April.
Revolving debt, including balances owed on store charge accounts and bank credit cards, plunged by -$7.4 billion in May (-10.5%). May was the sixteenth consecutive month to post a decline in revolving consumer debt. Over the past year, revolving debt has tumbled by -9.4%.
Non-revolving debt, including auto loans, also fell in May, declining by -1.4%. Over the past 12 months, non-revolving debt dipped by -0.5%. While more Americans are paying down their credit cards, many have also been buying new cars, which explains why we haven’t the same drop-off in non-revolving credit as in revolving credit.
The high rate of unemployment still has many consumers feeling insecure and the usual wave of pent up demand that has accompanied past recoveries has not manifested itself to the same degree this go-around. Consumers lacking access to home equity lines and other forms of credit are unable or reluctant to spend freely. Consumer credit has plunged by -$93.9 billion during the past twelve months, and by a total of -$166.3 billion since its peak in July 2008. (Kimberly Ritter)
Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/
Outstanding consumer credit may be down, but as a probable consequence, so are credit card delinquency rates. According to the American Bankers Association (ABA), during the first quarter of 2010, the number of consumers behind 30 days or more on their bank credit card payments was 3.9%. This was the first time since 2002 that this rate has fallen below 4.0%. The ABA also tracks a composite ratio that measures delinquencies across eight consumer debt categories. In the first quarter of this year, the composite measure of credit delinquencies fell to 3.0% from 3.2% in the previous quarter. Average balances carried on bank credit cards also fell.
American consumers have been in the process of shedding debt since August 2008 and the decline in credit delinquency rates is an indication consumer debt may be approaching more manageable levels. Taken together with higher rates of saving, many U.S. households appear to be taking a more prudent approach to handling their finances.
Less encouraging were numbers reported by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association. During the first quarter, the delinquency rate (defined by loans at least one payment behind but not in foreclosure) for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit residential properties, increased to 10.6% (seasonally adjusted) of all mortgage loans outstanding. During the fourth quarter of 2009, the rate was 10.0% and a year ago, the rate stood at 9.1%. Mortgage loans are the biggest component of household debt.
The percentage of loans in foreclosure was 4.6% in the first quarter, up from 3.9% a year ago. This represented another record high. While painting a pretty gloomy picture, the MBA noted that, compared to the fourth quarter of 2009, mortgage delinquencies were not getting much worse. [Given where we’ve been, “less worse” almost has an optimistic right to it!] (Kimberly Ritter)
Source: http://www.aba.com/default.htm, http://www.mbaa.org/default.htm
The April numbers from PKF Consulting pointed to continued improvement in the hotel industry. In Los Angeles County, the occupancy rate was 69.7% compared with 66.1% in April 2009. The average daily room rate (ADR) eased down by -1.5% to $140.53. This yielded a +4.0% increase in revenue per available room (revpar). For the month, the highest occupancy rates in the County were found in West Hollywood (77.9%) and Marina del Rey (77.0%). The highest ADR in April was found in Beverly Hills ($359.47), which was down over the year by -4.4%.
In Orange County in April, the occupancy rate was 74.1% compared with 68.7% last year. The ADR fell by -4.3% to $131.80. Revpar rose by +3.3% over the year. The highest occupancy rates were found in Anaheim (76.6%) and Costa Mesa (76.3%). The highest ADR was found in Huntington Beach, at $194.33, which was down over the year by -5.8%.
The average April hotel occupancy in San Diego County was 70.8% compared with 68.4% last year. The ADR declined by -4.2% to $146.10. Revpar fell by -0.9%. The highest occupancy rate in the County was found in Sports Arena/Old Town at 79.0%. The highest ADR was in San Diego Bay Areas, at $212.76, which was down over the year by -3.2%.
The hotel occupancy rate in San Francisco in April was 79.8%, up from 74.9% last year. The ADR fell by -5.2% to $146.51. By area in the City, the highest occupancy rate was in Fisherman’s Wharf at 87.5%. In San Jose/Peninsula, the April occupancy rate was 67.4% compared with 55.2% last year. The ADR fell by -3.7% to $113.73.
While these numbers are better than last year, industry experts caution that there is still a lot of distress in the hospitality industry. (Jack Kyser)
IMF: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an update to its April 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO) last week. The IMF raised its forecasts for the world economy in 2010. They are now projecting the world economy to grow by +4.6% in 2010 versus the April 2010 forecast of +4.2%.
The Fund still expects the advanced economies to grow at a much slower pace than the emerging economies. The advanced economies are now forecasted to grow by +2.6% in 2010 instead of +2.3%, while the emerging and developing economies are projected to expand by +6.4% this year rather than the +6.3% forecast in April. The largest upward revisions were to Brazil, Thailand and Taiwan; growth was raised by +1.6%, +1.5% and +1.2%, respectively. In addition, the outlooks for China and India were also raised. The Chinese and Indian economies are now projected to grow by a very robust +10.5% and +9.4%, respectively.
Taking a regional perspective, the Los Angeles Customs District’s top five trading partners are now forecasted to expand in 2010 by:
REGISTER NOW!
Wednesday, July 21, 2010: LAEDC 2010 Mid-year Economic Forecast
7:00 a.m. Breakfast & Networking. 8:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. Program. Los Angeles Marriott Downtown.
The LAEDC Mid-year Economic Forecast is the premier source for in-depth economic information and analysis on Los Angeles County and the surrounding areas. Jack Kyser, the Kyser Center for Economic Research Founding Economist, announced his retirement after nearly 30 years as the chief interpreter of the L.A. County economy. This Mid-year Forecast event will be his final official presentation. Jack will be joined by LAEDC Chief Economist Dr. Nancy Sidhu and Dr. Richard Green of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate as they update the economic outlook for the housing industry, the 5-County Southern California region, California, and the nation in the second half of the program. Our other panel will discuss critical infrastructure improvement projects. L.A. County residents and government organizations have committed more than $50 billion in public dollars to upgrade our region’s infrastructure, but will that be enough money to meet our needs?
The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE) is a free service of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC). Permission to quote any proprietary part of this release is granted given proper credit. Distribution is allowed provided that no modifications are made to the original content. Sponsors of this service do not necessarily endorse all opinions stated herein. For more information, please e-mail to eedge@laedc.org. To contact LAEDC, please call 213-622-4300.
Subscribe to e-EDGE and receive current economic news and major developments. Your e-mail address will not be disclosed to any outside party (including e-EDGE sponsors) under any circumstances.
To send us comments regarding e-EDGE, please e-mail to eedge@laedc.org.