e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The April jobs report from the California Employment Development Department indicated that a slow recovery is underway despite distressingly high unemployment rates. Total nonfarm employment in the state, seasonally adjusted, increased by +14,200 jobs from March to April, after a revised +14,000 jobs gain from February to March. Over the year, there was a drop of -355,300 jobs. However, these declines have been narrowing in recent months.
Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest losses over the year were in: construction (-91,000 jobs), manufacturing (-61,900 jobs), and government (-40,500 jobs). Increases over the year came in: (private) education (+27,300 jobs), administrative services (+8,700 jobs, with employment services up by +31,100 jobs), health services (+6,200 jobs), and information (+5,200 jobs, with motion picture & video production up by +15,200 jobs).
In Los Angeles County, there was a March-to-April gain of +1,500 nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted, after a decline of -9,600 jobs from February to March. Over the year, nonfarm employment in the County fell by -93,500 jobs. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest declines over the year came in: manufacturing (-24,300 jobs), government (-21,000 jobs), and construction (-18,500 jobs). The largest employment gains over the year to April were found in information (+23,100 jobs, of which +19,800 were in motion picture & sound recording), and (private) education (+6,100 jobs).
Orange County recorded a March-to-April increased of +2,900 nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted, after a gain of +500 jobs from February to March. Over the year, total nonfarm employment fell by -29,200 jobs. On an unadjusted basis, the largest declines over the year to April came in: construction (-12,700 jobs), government (-5,000 jobs), and manufacturing (-4,900 jobs). Four employment sectors in the County recorded increases over the year: leisure & hospitality services (+7,400 jobs), health services (+1,400 jobs), (private) education (+700 jobs), and finance & insurance (+300 jobs).
The Riverside-San Bernardino area posted a decline of -400 jobs, seasonally adjusted, from March to April, after an increase of +2,400 jobs from February to March. Over the year to April, total nonfarm employment in the area declined by -37,400 jobs. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest declines over the year to April came in: construction (-11,300 jobs), leisure & hospitality (-5,600 jobs), and manufacturing (-5,400 jobs). Increases over the year were found in: administrative services (+400 jobs, with the employment services component up by +2,100 jobs) and health services (+300 jobs).
San Diego County also saw a small decline in nonfarm employment from March to April, -800 jobs. From February to March, the area saw an increase of +2,300 jobs. Over the year, total nonfarm employment in the County dropped by -24,500 jobs. On an unadjusted basis, the largest losses over the year to April came in: manufacturing (-5,800 jobs), construction (-4,600 jobs), and government (-3,400 jobs). Increases were found in: health services (+2,700 jobs), administrative services (+1,800 jobs, with the employment services component contributing +3,100 jobs), and (private) education (+1,300 jobs).
Ventura County saw seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increase by +300 jobs from March to April, after a gain of +500 jobs from February to March. Over the year, total nonfarm employment in the County fell by -7,300 jobs. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest losses over the year came in: construction (-2,000 jobs), manufacturing (-1,900 jobs), and retailing (-1,000 jobs). Increases over the year were found in: education & health (+400 jobs), transportation/warehousing/utilities (+100 jobs), and administrative services (+100 jobs, with a +1,200 job increase in employment services).
The news from the Bay Area wasn’t quite as good. In the Oakland metro area, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment fell by -2,500 jobs from March to April, after a +700 job gain from February to March. Over the year, the area’s total nonfarm employment fell by -35,500 jobs. In the San Francisco metro area, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment declined by -500 jobs from March to April after a decline of -900 jobs from February to March. Over the year, the area’s total nonfarm employment dropped by -34,300 jobs. The news from the San Jose area, however, was better. From March to April, there was an increase of +2,000 jobs, after a February to March gain of +800 jobs. Over the year, the area’s total nonfarm employment dropped by -19,400 jobs. (Jack Kyser)
Source: http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1003
Figures released last week by the California Employment Development Department (EDD) showed California’s unemployment rate unchanged in April. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April remained at 12.6 percent. On a year-to-year basis, the unemployment rate has increased by +1.6 percentage points.
The U.S. unemployment rate increased in April to 9.9 percent. Thus, joblessness in California continued to be higher than the nation, the trend since September 2008. Only two other states have higher unemployment rates than California: Michigan (14.0%) and Nevada (13.7%). Out of the three, only Nevada saw its unemployment rate rise in April.
Within the five-county Southern California area, all of the counties experienced increases in non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates during April when compared to a year ago. In addition, all of the counties had double-digit unemployment rates in April with the exception of Orange County. The San Bernardino County unemployment rate increased from 11.9 percent a year earlier to 14.1 percent in April. Riverside County’s unemployment rate also rose on a year-to-year basis, moving from 12.2 percent to 14.3 percent in April. Los Angeles County’s April rate moved upward from 10.6 percent a year ago to 11.9 percent. Ventura County’s April rate increased from 8.8 percent a year earlier to 10.5 percent.
In Orange County, the unadjusted unemployment rate moved upward from 8.2 percent in April 2009 to 9.5 percent in April 2010. San Diego County’s rate rose from 8.8 percent to 10.4 percent over the past year. (Ferdinando Guerra)
Source: http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate201005.pdf
Total housing starts rose by +5.8% in April to 672,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR). This increase was the third in the past four months and the highest pace of activity since October 2008. At 593,000 units SAAR, construction of single-family homes in April was up by +10.2% over the March rate and well above (+64%) the lows of first quarter 2008 (at 362,000 units). However in the volatile multi-family sector, starts dropped by -18.6% in April to just 79,000 units, near the cycle low monthly pace of February 2010 (when only 78,000 units were started).
Activity in the U.S. homebuilding industry plunged for three dreary years before reaching bottom in early 2009. However, total housing starts in April were still -68% below the cycle peak of 2.12 million units registered in first quarter 2006. Single-family and multi-family starts were down over this period by -66% and -79% respectively.
The dynamics of the housing industry are changing, though slowly. (1) Inventories of unsold newly built single-family homes have declined markedly and the supply of unsold new homes—the number of months supply available for sale—stood at a respectable 6.7 in March. (2) Mortgage rates are quite low, which helps would-be homebuyers with good credit records. (3) A federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers was available through April 2010. Conditions in the single-family detached homebuilding sector have stabilized in response to these favorable factors, but the future remains uncertain. Mortgage rates could increase, especially after financial markets shed their current case of “Europhobia.” And the federal tax credits have expired. What happens to future housing demand is not at all clear.
Meanwhile, the multifamily sector's troubles continue apace. Constrained by a lack of finance and rising vacancies (as tenants lose their jobs), the number of new projects is extremely low, and the multi-family sector is still at risk. Homebuilding is not completely out of the woods just yet. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
Source: http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
Home sales and median sales prices which had both been on the upswing, parted company last month and moved in separate directions. Home sales in Southern California (houses, townhomes and condominiums) dipped last month by -1.0% - the first year-over-year decline in almost two years. A total of 20,299 new and resale homes were sold in the Southern California region last month, slipping by -1.0% from a year ago and by -0.9% compared with March sales volumes.
Meanwhile, the average median price in the six-county region increased by +15.4% from a year earlier to $285,000 but was flat compared with March 2010. April marked the fifth consecutive month in which the median price increased on a year-over basis. Orange County posted the strongest gain in median price last month, rising by +13.2%, but was closely followed by Ventura County (+12.4%) and San Diego County (+12.2%). Los Angeles posted a gain of +9.8% over the year. Things were even looking up in the Inland Empire as the median price rose by +8.3% in both Riverside and San Bernardino Counties.
The April increase in median price was partly due to a slightly higher percentage of sales transactions occurring in more expensive areas. A year ago, Riverside and San Bernardino accounted for 37.0% of total sales, but last month that number fell to 33.8%. From a pricing standpoint, the number of home sold priced at $500,000 or higher rose to 19.3% of all sales in April compared with 14.8% at this time last year. Still, this was well below the historic average of 33.4% of all sales.
The housing market continued to be off balance and unsteady in April. While more affordable prices and low interest rates should help push the housing market into recovery, financing constraints are dampening high-end activity. Additionally, foreclosures accounted for 36.4% of the resale market which, while down from 38.3% (revised) in March, was still dismally high. We will also have a clearer indication over the next few months of how much the recent gains in prices and sales volumes were the result of government support versus real improvement. The relatively better unemployment situation in areas like Orange County (9.5% in April) compared to the Riverside-San Bernardino region (14.2% in April) may also be prompting improvement in specific locales as people move closer to areas where the jobs outlook is more positive. (Kimberly Ritter)
|
Sales Volume |
Median Price |
||||
County |
April 2009 |
April 2010 |
%Change |
April 2009 |
April 2010 |
%Change |
Los Angeles |
6,425 |
6,688 |
4.1% |
$300,000 |
$329,500 |
9.8% |
Orange |
2,391 |
2,669 |
11.6% |
$380,000 |
$430,000 |
13.2% |
Riverside |
4,469 |
4,117 |
-7.9% |
$180,000 |
$195,000 |
8.3% |
San Bernardino |
3,130 |
2,744 |
-12.3% |
$138,500 |
$150,000 |
8.3% |
San Diego |
3,375 |
3,292 |
-2.5% |
$290,000 |
$325,250 |
12.2% |
Ventura |
724 |
789 |
9.0% |
$340,000 |
$382,000 |
12.4% |
Southern California |
20,514 |
20,299 |
-1.0% |
$247,000 |
$285,000 |
15.4% |
Source: Data Quick News
Source: http://www.dqnews.com/
The overall Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) fell by -0.1% in April after ticking up by +0.1% in March. Over the twelve months ending April 2010, headline inflation increased by +2.2%
The Core U.S. Consumer Price Index (all items less food and energy) remained unchanged in April as it was in March. Over the past year, core CPI rose by just +0.9%, the slowest pace in 44 years. The shelter index and its major components (rent and owners’ equivalent rent) were all unchanged in April. The index for new vehicles was also flat. In contrast, airline fares jumped by +2.2%. Moderate increases were posted for the medical care index (+0.2%), the used cars and trucks index (+0.2%) and the recreation index (+0.3%). Declining prices were recorded for the apparel index (-0.7%) and the index for household furnishings and operations (-0.5%).
Outside the core CPI components, the energy index declined by -1.4% in April after being unchanged in March. Over the year, however, energy prices have risen sharply (+18.5%). The gasoline index fell for the third straight month, dropping by -2.4% in April after slipping by -0.8% in March and by -1.4% in February. In spite of recent declines, over the last twelve months gasoline prices have surged by +38.3%. The index for household energy fell by -0.4% in April due primarily to sharply lower prices for natural gas (-4.4%). The food and beverage index rose by +0.2% in April (the same as in March). Within the food index, prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose by +1.4%, while prices for fruits and vegetables dipped by -0.2%. Over the year, the food index rose by +0.5%.
The Los Angeles CMSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index increased by +0.2% in April after rising by +0.4% in March. Over the year, the regional all-items index advanced by +1.9%. [Note: local consumer price index data are not seasonally adjusted]
During the month of April, the local transportation index was up by +0.4% after increasing by +1.2% in March. Since April 2009, transportation prices have climbed by +11.1%. The transportation index comprises just over 16% of the Los Angeles CPI all-items index. A prime contributor to the rising transportation index was gasoline prices, which rose by +0.7% in April and were up by +32.7% over the year.
Food and beverage prices in the Los Angeles area rose by +0.4% last month after inching up by +0.3% during the previous month. From April 2009 to April 2010, prices for food and beverages increased by +0.3%. The housing index (47% of the Los Angeles area’s all-items index) edged down by -0.1% in April after remaining unchanged in March. Compared with April 2009, the housing index was down by -1.5%. Apparel prices declined by -1.2% for the month but rose over the year by +4.8%. The index for medical care was unchanged in April but increased by +2.8% compared with the same period last year. (Kimberly Ritter)
Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf / http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.pdf
Movements in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) were mostly down during April. Prices in the index for finished goods slipped by -0.1% after rising by +0.7% during the previous month. Prices of core finished goods (less food and energy) were up a bit (+0.2%) after rising by +0.1% in March. From April 2009 to April 2010, finished goods prices increased by +5.5%.
In the early stages of production, prices of intermediate goods managed a gain in April – rising by +0.8% following similar rise in March (+0.6%). Prices quoted by manufacturers of intermediate goods have increased by +8.6% since April 2010. Prices in the crude goods index gave up -1.2% after advancing by +3.2% just one month prior. Over the year, the crude index surged by +28.8%.
In the finished goods category, the index for energy goods dipped by -0.8% last month after inching up by +0.7% in March. After rising in five of the last six months, lower gasoline prices led the decline (-2.7%). Lower prices for residential gas (-1.3%) also contributed to the decline. Finished food prices were down as well (-0.2%), due to large drops in prices of fresh fruits and melons (-7.1%), fresh and dry vegetables (-10.2%) and eggs (-16.4%). The core index for finished goods was up by +0.2% (the sixth consecutive monthly advance) due mainly to higher prices for passenger cars (+0.6%).
Prices of intermediate goods moved up by +0.8% in April after rising by +0.6% in March. The energy goods index rose by +0.5% - pushed up by higher electricity prices (+1.1%). Prices for intermediate foodstuffs ticked up by +0.1%. The largest contributing factor to higher food prices was an increase in the index for meats (+5.1%). Led by higher prices for plastic resins and materials (+11.4%), the core intermediate index jumped by +1.1%, the largest increase since a +2.0% rise in July 2008.
The price index for crude goods decreased by -1.2% last month. The decline was primarily attributable to lower energy prices (-5.9%), particularly natural gas (-19.2%). Meanwhile, the index for crude foodstuffs increased by +0.9% rising on the back of higher prices for slaughter cattle, hogs and poultry. The core crude goods index climbed by +4.0% in April following an increase of +6.0% in March. Approximately two-thirds of last month’s increase was attributable to iron and steel scrap prices, which rose by +7.8%. (Kimberly Ritter)
Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
Asia: All of the top five trading partners of the Los Angeles Customs District (LACD) have announced official GDP figures for the first quarter 2010. Once again, the results demonstrated that Developing Asia is indeed leading the global recovery. For the second consecutive quarter, Taiwan (LACD’s #4 ranked trading partner) had the best result amongst these countries. Taiwan’s GDP grew by +13.3% in the first quarter of 2010 when compared to a year earlier. This was the best performance for the Taiwanese economy in more than thirty years. Taiwan’s growth can be mainly attributed to trade with the LACD’s top trading partner, China. China’s continued economic strength (China’s GDP rose by +11.9% on a year-to-year basis in the first quarter 2010) and ultimately, China’s increase in demand for Taiwanese goods were the key drivers of Taiwanese growth.
Turning to the LACD’s other top trading partners, Japan (#2) experienced an increase of nearly +5% on an annualized quarter-to-quarter basis in the first quarter 2010. This was particularly noteworthy for the island nation, as the positive result should now alleviate fears of a double-dip recession and allow the government to place a greater emphasis on reducing Japan’s large fiscal debt. South Korea (#3 trading partner) also had a very strong performance over the first quarter compared to a year earlier, as GDP grew by +7.8%. The LACD’s fifth leading trading partner, Thailand, saw GDP grow by +12% in the first quarter of 2010 compared to a year earlier. This was Thailand’s strongest growth rate since 1995. However, the political unrest and related events of the past few months are expected to impact economic growth negatively in the second quarter.
Some other top trading partners also announced first quarter results. Malaysia (+10.1%), Vietnam (+8.7%) and Singapore (+15.5%) reported robust growth figures for the first quarter on an annual basis. As with Taiwan and Japan, the solid performances are closely tied to China’s rapid growth, as these nations benefitted greatly from a surge in exports to China. A recovery in private consumption spending along with a resurgence in tourism also played significant roles. (Ferdinando Guerra)
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